Who's In the Race

Democrat Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa's governor's race on Nov. 3. The seat is open because Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is not running for reelection. ​

In the June 2 primaries, Sand ran unopposed on the Democratic side. Lahn won the Republican primary with 38 percent of the vote, edging out his closest rival by just 1,652 votes out of 214,529 cast.

Endorsements

Lahn has consolidated support from the top of the Republican Party. He has drawn endorsements from Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Terry Branstad. Mike Naig and Kim Reynolds have also endorsed Lahn. Reynolds's backing carries particular weight in a race to succeed her, signaling continuity with the current administration.

Sand has assembled a roster of prominent Democrats from inside and outside Iowa. He has been endorsed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Iowa Gov. and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. Andy Beshear, Laura Kelly, and Gavin Newsom have also endorsed Sand. The backing of two sitting governors from states that lean Republican, namely Beshear in Kentucky and Kelly in Kansas, suggests Democrats see Sand's race as winnable in a state that has trended toward the GOP in recent cycles.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Both major race-rating services currently favor Sand. Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democratic, updated Oct. 28. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Lean Democratic, updated Oct. 28. The consensus rating is Lean Democratic, updated Oct. 23.

A polling average aggregated by Legis1 as of Oct. 29 showed Sand leading Lahn 52 percent to 45 percent, a margin of 6.5 points.

Previous Elections

Donald Trump carried Iowa in the 2024 presidential election with 56 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Democrat Kamala Harris. That 13-point margin made Iowa one of the more reliably Republican states in the presidential race.

In the 2022 governor's race, Reynolds won by about 18 percentage points, taking 58 percent to Democrat Deidre DeJear's 40 percent. Both results point to a state where Republicans have won statewide by comfortable margins in recent cycles.

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