Who's In the Race

Democrat Josh Turek faces Republican Ashley Hinson and Libertarian Thomas Laehn in the Nov. 3 general election in Iowa's U.S. Senate race. The seat is open: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) announced she would retire after two terms and not seek reelection. ​

Turek is a member of the Iowa House of Representatives and a two-time Paralympic gold medalist for Team USA in wheelchair basketball. He won the June 2 Democratic primary with about 63 percent of the vote over Zach Wahls.

Hinson is a U.S. representative for Iowa's 2nd Congressional District who previously worked as a television journalist and served in the Iowa House. She won the June 2 Republican primary with about 74 percent of the vote over Jim Carlin. Laehn is the Greene County Attorney.

What They Stand For

Turek has said "health care is a human right" and supports reaching a public option, according to C-SPAN coverage of his campaign. He's also supported:

  • Reducing costs for working-class Iowans on housing, health care, medication, and groceries, per his campaign website;
  • Criticizing Hinson's support for Medicaid spending reductions, according to Iowa Public Radio; and
  • Making affordability a central campaign focus, per his campaign platform at turek4iowa.com.

Hinson's campaign lists lowering costs and growing the economy among its priorities. She's also supported:

  • Working with President Trump to secure the border;
  • Healthcare, agriculture and rural issues as campaign priorities; and
  • Her campaign's stated focus, "Fighting For Iowa Families."

Laehn has argued the country is "on the road to monarchy" unless Congress reins in presidential power, according to the Des Moines Register.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Josh Turek had raised about $6.3 million and had about $2.4 million cash on hand, while Thomas Laehn had raised about $54,000 and had about $8,300 on hand over the same period. Hinson's fundraising figures through that date are not available in the filings covered here.

Outside groups have spent about $9.8 million supporting Turek, with VoteVets the largest spender at about $9.8 million, and about $213,000 opposing him, with Americans for Prosperity Action the largest spender on that side at about $202,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 12, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 9. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Hinson, a 60% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 14, implying a 40% chance for Democrats, whose nominee is Turek, per the Kalshi market.

Republican Chuck Grassley won the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate race (Class III seat) with about 55 percent of the vote. In 2024, Republicans won all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats. Donald Trump carried Iowa in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote. Those results make Iowa a reliably Republican-leaning state at the federal level, which gives Hinson a structural advantage even as the Toss-up ratings reflect a genuinely competitive contest.

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