What Happened?

A Trump-aligned political group has poured $22.9 million into ads opposing one Democratic Senate candidate in Texas, more than it spent boosting every Republican candidate in the country combined. MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned hybrid political action committee, has reported $36.3 million in total spending this election cycle as of today, Oct. 21. ​

The $22.9 million opposing Democrat James Talarico in Texas' open U.S. Senate race represents roughly 63 percent of that total, making Texas the largest single target of MAGA Inc.'s direct spending this cycle. That figure is more than three times the $7.5 million MAGA Inc. spent supporting Republican Ken Paxton, its largest single pro-Republican expenditure in the race.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

Texas voters in this Senate race are the direct target: the money funds television, digital, and connected-TV ads running in the state.

Four payments of $5 million each to ad-buying firm Del Ray Media LLC, totaling $20 million, account for about 87 percent of MAGA Inc.'s reported spending against Talarico. Those payments were made on Sept. 4, Sept. 21, Sept. 28, and Oct. 13, spanning roughly six weeks.

MAGA Inc. reported raising $449.4 million, spending $308.9 million, and holding $164.3 million in cash as of Oct. 14.

Both Sides, Now

Three Trump-aligned super PACs committed about $277 million from September through mid-October to support Republican candidates, and their operation has financed advertising in 24 states, according to an Oct. 20 New York Times report.

President Donald Trump claimed in an Oct. 20 Truth Social post that his political operation had spent or planned to spend more than $400 million by Election Day. The New York Times noted that Trump's characterization of the groups' funds as his own has raised legal scrutiny, and that the fundraising arrangement, including dinners where donors could pay as much as $1 million per person to meet with the president, has raised questions about potential influence over administration decisions.

Critics point to a September PolitiFact fact-check, which rated as false a claim in Texas PAC ads that Talarico supported taxpayer-funded surgeries for children, finding he did not support using taxpayer money for those procedures.

What Happens Next?

According to the advertising tracking firm AdImpact, the three Trump-aligned PACs were scheduled to air approximately $99 million in additional advertisements between Oct. 15 and Election Day.

MAGA Inc. also transferred $200 million to No Going Back PAC Inc. and $25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC Inc. this cycle; the New York Times reported those two groups were effectively extensions of MAGA Inc. and that the transfers accounted for nearly all their funding through Oct. 14.

The Federal Election Commission (FEC) requires committees to file updated disclosure reports on a regular schedule, so voters can track additional spending before Election Day. The central question for Texas voters: will the concentration of outside money against a single candidate shift the outcome in this race?

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