The Race
Incumbent Republican Derek Schmidt is running for re-election in Kansas's 2nd U.S. House District, with the general election set for November 3. But before we get there, voters will decide the primaries on August 4: Republicans choosing from two candidates and Democrats from three. The real test comes in November, when 4 candidates will compete for the seat. This is a contested race, and the prediction markets vs polls debate is already heating up.
Expert Ratings
The Cook Political Report and its peers agree. As of mid-June, the consensus race rating for Kansas 2nd is a solid "Solid Republican."
Prediction Markets
Kalshi odds as of July 29 give Republicans a 92% probability of winning this race. The betting crowd isn't hedging: they're all-in on red.
Experts vs. Markets
The expert raters and the prediction markets data are essentially in lockstep. Both say this is a Republican stronghold.
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