Who's In the Race
Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-KY) faces Republican Maria Rodriguez in the Nov. 3 general election in Kentucky's 3rd District.
McGarvey has represented Kentucky's 3rd District in Congress since 2023, after serving a decade in the Kentucky State Senate. He ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Rodriguez won the May 19 Republican primary with about 48% of the vote over David Nichter, who finished second with about 21%. Rodriguez works as a trauma nurse in Louisville and is also a business owner.
What They Stand For
McGarvey lists addressing gun violence and passing "common-sense gun legislation" among his priorities on his official House website. He's also supported:
- Allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription-drug prices,
- expanding coverage to include vision, dental and hearing; and
- Reducing gun violence in communities.
Rodriguez lists "Defending Capitalism" as a priority on her campaign website. She's also supported:
- Lower taxes,
- Legal immigration,
- Protecting the unborn and protecting women's sports; and
- A safer Louisville.
The Money Behind the Race
Through June 30, McGarvey had raised about $1.6 million and had about $1.8 million cash on hand, more than his receipts for the period. Republican U.S. House candidate Maria Rodriguez had raised about $38,000 and had about $15,700 in cash on hand as of June 30.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets
Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball agreed, also rating it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections called it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is McGarvey, a 97.31% chance of winning as of Oct. 14.
McGarvey carried the district with about 62% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024. Republicans hold five of Kentucky's six U.S. House seats, with McGarvey's district the lone Democratic seat in both the 2022 and 2024 cycles. Donald Trump carried Kentucky in the 2024 presidential election with about 64.5% of the vote.
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