Who's In the Race

Central Kentucky hasn't sent a Democrat to Congress in more than 15 years. But Democrats think this could be the year, now that Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) is giving up the seat to run for the U.S. Senate, according to Louisville Public Media. [](#ngr-5c5f1d20-1048-4df1-921e-4f1ff3d0836f)

Republican Ralph Alvarado, a former state senator, faces Democrat Zach Dembo, a former federal prosecutor. Alvarado won about 57 percent of his primary vote, and Dembo took about 40 percent to win a seven-candidate Democratic field. Ballotpedia also lists independents Jay Bowman and Pete Lynch on the ballot.

What They Stand For

Alvarado, a physician, wants more insurance competition across state lines and greater price transparency, according to his campaign website. He says he will "work with both parties to fight for affordable healthcare, lower costs, and practical solutions that help Kentucky families."

On the economy, he promises to cut taxes, reduce regulations and eliminate wasteful government spending. A June version of his website listed border security as a top issue, pledging to stop fentanyl and halt illegal immigration.

Dembo has made opposing Medicaid cuts the core of his health care platform. He argues the cuts would harm Kentucky families, threaten rural hospitals and eliminate good-paying jobs. He calls current tariffs "just taxes" on businesses and consumers.

Dembo also has a 10-point anti-corruption platform. He says he entered the race after resigning from the Department of Justice over what he calls its politicization. He supports letting women make their own health care decisions, according to his campaign priorities page.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have spent about $7.8 million supporting candidates in this race, Federal Election Commission records show. About $7.4 million backed Republicans, compared with about $434,000 for Democrats. The records show no counted spending against either nominee.

Defend American Jobs accounts for about $7.2 million, more than any other group. VoteVets ranks second at about $234,000, followed by Women Vote at about $148,000. The National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee spent about $82,000, and Conservatives for American Excellence spent about $59,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

All three major forecasters rate the race Likely Republican. The Cook Political Report made that call as of Sept. 11, Inside Elections as of Sept. 17 and Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Sept. 22. On Kalshi, traders favored Alvarado at about 76 percent as of Thursday, Sept. 24.

Barr won the seat with about 63 percent of the vote in 2022 and 2024. Republicans won five of Kentucky's six House seats in both years, and Donald Trump carried the state with about 64 percent in 2024. In this district, Trump's margin was 15 points, WEKU reported.

Dembo notes that his former boss, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, won the district by 20 points. Alvarado insists the seat will stay Republican. Voters decide on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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