The Race
Incumbent Democrat Luz Rivas is defending her seat in California's 29th U.S. House District in the November 3 general election. Rivas dominated the June 2 primary with a commanding 51.0% of the vote, leaving her nearest challenger, Angélica María Dueñas, well behind at 24.9%.
Experts
Here's where prediction markets vs polls alignment matters: all three major forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections) rate this race identically: Solid Democratic. Translation: this is not a competitive race.
Prediction Markets
All three major forecasters call this Solid Democratic, and congressional race predictions from the prediction markets should reflect that confidence. When Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections agree this heavily, and election prediction markets price accordingly, it's a sign the outcome is genuinely clear. Rivas's June primary performance (capturing just over half the vote in a three-candidate field) set the tone for a general election she's heavily favored to win.
---
Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article