Who's In the Race

Massachusetts's 4th U.S. House District is open for 2026, paving the way for a face off between Democratic incumbent Jake Auchincloss (D-MA) and Republican challenger Tom Stalcup on Nov. 3. ​

Auchincloss graduated from Harvard College, served in the Marines commanding infantry in Afghanistan and special operations in Panama, then spent three terms on the Newton City Council before winning his House seat. In the Democratic primary on Sept. 1, he won about 71% of the vote over Jason Poulos. Stalcup holds a Ph.D. in physics from Florida State University and founded an environmental-monitoring company whose systems have been deployed from the Arctic to Antarctica. He ran unopposed in the Republican primary.

What They Stand For

Auchincloss has supported building on Medicare drug-price negotiation and the Part D out-of-pocket cap with further steps to lower healthcare costs and reduce medical debt, according to his House issues page. He has also proposed raising the minimum age for social-media accounts from 13 to 16, with age verification that does not require uploading photo IDs or scanning faces, per his campaign website. He has called for holding social-media and AI companies liable for harms including deepfakes and harassment, and taxing large technology companies to fund trade schools and one-to-one tutoring in public schools.

Stalcup has supported "immediate, broad drug price negotiation" without limits on which drugs are included, according to his campaign website. He has proposed allowing safe, equivalent generic drugs to enter the market and requiring that public investment in research translate into affordable prices, as well as supported a hybrid healthcare system guaranteeing Medicare coverage for every American while allowing private insurers to compete across state lines under consumer protections. He also supports raising the federal minimum wage to about $15 an hour and indexing it to inflation.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Auchincloss raised about $3.6 million through Aug. 12 and held about $7.3 million in cash on hand. Stalcup raised about $26,000 through Aug. 12 and had about $1,300 in the bank.

Outside groups spent about $190,000 in the race as of Oct. 9, all of it supporting Auchincloss, with Protect Progress accounting for the entire total.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 97.64% chance of winning as of Oct. 9.

Auchincloss carried the district with about 69% in 2022 and about 70% in 2024. Statewide, Democrats won all nine of Massachusetts's U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, and in the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts with about 61% of the vote.

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