Who's In the Race

Democrat John Olszewski Jr. and Republican Dave Wallace face each other in November for Maryland's 2nd U.S. House District seat. Both advanced through certified primaries held June 23.

Wallace won his two-person Republican primary with 88.85 percent of the vote, or 27,136 votes, over Nnabu Eze with 3,404 votes. The Democratic primary drew 77,665 total votes, and the Republican primary drew 30,540 total votes.

What They Stand For

#### Olszewski

  • On health care, Olszewski supports extending enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, warning on his official site that expiration would raise premiums and cause people to lose marketplace coverage, as stated in a Maryland delegation press release.
  • He also opposed legislation he said would cut Medicaid coverage, end Affordable Care Act coverage for some residents, and raise premiums, as stated in his vote explanation on the Republican tax bill.
  • On energy and infrastructure, he opposes cuts to clean-energy funding and cancellation of infrastructure projects, arguing those moves would raise utility costs and reduce job creation, as stated on his Energy page.
  • On schools and jobs, he supports strong K-12 education, pathways to well-paying jobs, and workforce programs including career and technical education and apprenticeships, as stated on his Education page.
  • On the economy, he has supported connecting small businesses with career and technical education graduates and working on federally funded projects in the district, as stated on his Economy page.

#### Wallace

  • On energy, Wallace supports lowering gas prices and pursuing American energy independence, including the use of available sources such as natural gas in Maryland, as stated on his campaign website.
  • He supports term limits for members of Congress, giving the president a one-line veto over the budget, and First Amendment protections for freedom of religion, speech, press, and assembly.
  • His campaign also describes its goal as recruiting and uniting supporters around a movement of steadfast Americans, an organizing statement on its Our Goal page that does not add detailed legislative proposals.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending counted toward federal totals in this race is very small, with race-specific aggregations showing $10 tied to Democratic candidates and $10 coded as support. The support total reflects one counted independent expenditure, $10 in support by Sierra Club Independent Action backing Olszewski, with periodic coverage through Sept. 21 and 24/48-hour notices through Sept. 29.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Handicappers rate the race Solid Democratic across the board, with the Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic as of Sept. 25. The Sabato's Crystal Ball rating was Solid Democratic as of Sept. 22, and the Inside Elections rating was Solid Democratic as of Sept. 17. The consensus rating was also Solid Democratic as of Sept. 28. On the betting market, Kalshi gave the Democrat a 96.15 percent chance and the Republican a 3.85 percent chance as of Sept. 29, on volume of 3,906.

Maryland leans blue in federal congressional races, with Democrats winning decisively in both of the last two cycles and Republicans holding only one seat across all House and Senate races. In 2022 and 2024, Republican Andy Harris won the 1st District while Democrats won the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th Districts and the Senate seat.

In this district itself, Democrat C A. Dutch Ruppersberger won in 2022 with 59.2 percent of the vote, and Democrat John Johnny O. Olszewski Jr. won in 2024 with 58.2 percent of the vote. In the 2024 presidential race in the state, Democrat Kamala Harris won Maryland with 62.6 percent of the vote.

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