The Race
Democrat William R. Keating holds the seat in Massachusetts's ninth U.S. House District, and the smart money—along with the political establishment—is betting he'll keep it. The general election showdown happens Nov. 3, 2026, with the Democratic and Republican primaries both scheduled for Sept. 1.
Ratings
Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball have all locked in their rating: Solid Democratic.
Prediction Markets
The real-money crowd on Kalshi is putting their money where the experts' mouths are. As of June 29, betting markets give the Democratic candidate a 96% probability of winning.
Experts vs Markets
Both experts and the markets say this is a Democratic stronghold with a vanishingly small chance of a Republican breakthrough. The Democratic primary will feature two candidates on Sept. 1, while the Republican side will have just one.
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