Who's In the Race

The race for Michigan's 12th U.S. House District seat comes down to Democratic nominee Rashida Tlaib, Republican nominee James Hooper, Green Party nominee Brenda Sanders, U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee Joseph Sosnowski, and Working Class Party nominee Gary Walkowicz.

Incumbent Tlaib advanced from the Democratic primary held on August 4 with 102,707 votes out of a total of 138,954 votes in a four-candidate field.

What They Stand For

Tlaib's campaign website, under the heading Rooted in Community, lists environmental justice as a priority focused on environmental justice policies (Rooted in Community). The same campaign site lists racial justice and immigration justice among its priorities.

Additional context from her official website includes congressional remarks on Gaza and domestic needs, emphasizing expanded health care, housing, and food security, while criticizing U.S. military support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

Hooper serves as the Wayne County Chairman. His official website states that he is "unapologetically a Conservative Christian Believer," pro-life, and pro-America first.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of September 25. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race Solid Democratic as of September 22. Inside Elections rated the race Solid Democratic as of September 17. A consensus rating listed alongside those three forecasters was Solid Democratic as of September 28. Prediction-market odds from Kalshi, as of September 29, put the Democrat at 0.98 probability and the Republican at 0.2 probability, with a volume of 1,150 reported for the market.

Michigan is characterized as purple and competitive, with Republicans winning six of 13 House races and Democrats winning seven of 13 in 2022. In 2024, Republicans won four of 13 House races and Democrats won nine of 13, a net two-seat Democratic gain in House representation between cycles.

That statewide shift included Michigan's 7th House District moving from Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2022 to Republican Tom Barrett in 2024, Michigan's 8th District moving from Republican in 2022 to Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet in 2024, and Elissa Slotkin winning Michigan's U.S. Senate seat in 2024 as a Democratic gain. Michigan's 12th U.S. House District itself was won in 2022 by Rashida Tlaib, Democrat, with 70.8 percent of the vote. The same district was won in 2024 by Rashida Tlaib, Democrat, with 69.7 percent of the vote.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won Michigan with 49.727 percent of the vote, capturing the state's electoral votes for the Republican Party.

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