The Race

Republican Rep. John Moolenaar cruises toward the Aug. 4 Michigan second congressional district primary without a challenger in his party, while four Democrats compete for the chance to face him in November, in a district every major forecaster rates Solid Republican.

Michigan's 2nd Congressional District stretches across western and northern Michigan. The state runs a traditional partisan primary system: registered voters choose a party ballot, each producing one nominee for the Nov. 3 general election. Both the Republican and Democratic primaries are set for Aug. 4.

The Candidates

Moolenaar has held a western Michigan House seat since 2015, first representing the old 4th District before moving to the redrawn 2nd District in 2023. He sits on the House Committee on Appropriations and chairs the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, through which he has led bipartisan efforts to counter economic and national security threats from Beijing. He co-sponsored the Stop PRC Economic Espionage Act of 2026 as part of that work.

His legislative record in Michigan includes securing federal funding to address PFAS water contamination and championing the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. He also backed the Medicare Access to Rural Anesthesiology Act, targeting health care access in rural communities. With no primary opponent, he advances automatically to the general election.

Benjamin Ambrose grew up on a small farm in Hesperia, Michigan, and spent nearly 20 years in the U.S. Marine Corps, completing multiple combat tours and humanitarian operations before transitioning to federal employment. He is campaigning on economic growth, expanded health care access (including a public option and broader Medicaid coverage), and environmental sustainability, framing himself as a working-class voice for rural and small-town Michigan.

Jamie Hill was raised as a fourth-generation farm kid in Michigan's Thumb region and built a career in emergency services as a paramedic and EMS educator before earning a Master of Medical Science in Physician Assistant Studies from Yale School of Medicine. Hill is backed by Courage for Democracy as a "Courage Candidate" and is running on a message of rural representation, arguing the district has been underserved by its current congressional leadership.

Clyde Welford spent 35 years as a teacher before winning election in 2022 to the Lake County Commission, where he represents District 7. He is the only candidate in the Democratic field with prior elected-office experience and is running on a community-focused platform.

Andrew Ault is also on the Democratic primary ballot per Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings.

The Democratic primary winner advances to face Moolenaar in the Nov. 3 general election.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District race is negligible. According to FEC data covering activity through June 30, total independent expenditures in the race amount to $286, with no communication costs reported. The sole outside spender on record is Right to Life of Michigan Victory Fund, and every dollar supports Moolenaar.

For context, the combined fundraising across all candidates in the race reached $1,754,334 through the same period.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Michigan's 2nd District as Solid Republican.

Prediction markets align with that assessment. As of August 3, the odds of Republicans winning the seat were placed at 98%. The action in Michigan's 2026 House primary cycle for this seat will come August 4, when Democratic voters pick their nominee, but the November outcome, according to every available measure, is not in doubt.

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