Michigan's 3rd Congressional District Primary

Democrat Hillary Scholten cruises into the Aug. 4 Michigan 3rd District primary unopposed, while two Republicans battle for the chance to face her in November. The seat, centered on the Grand Rapids metropolitan area in western Michigan, is not up for grabs in any competitive sense (every major forecaster rates it as leaning Democratic) but the Republican contest will determine which challenger carries the party's banner into the fall.

Michigan runs a traditional partisan primary system. Each party holds its own primary on Aug. 4, with the winner advancing to the general election on Nov. 3. There is no top-two or ranked-choice mechanism; Democrats and Republicans select their nominees independently. With Scholten running without opposition on the Democratic side, the only live primary competition this cycle falls entirely within the Republican field.

The Candidates

Scholten, a Grand Rapids attorney and former U.S. Department of Justice staffer, flipped the redrawn 3rd District seat in 2022, becoming the first Democrat to represent it in decades. Now seeking her third term, she sits on the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and the House Committee on Small Business.

Her Transportation Committee seat has translated into concrete results for the district. She helped deliver $115 million in authorized investments for West Michigan through the bipartisan Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) 2026 markup and has pushed federal funding to address per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) contamination in West Michigan water systems.

Terri DeBoer arrives with the highest name recognition of any candidate in the Republican field. A retired television meteorologist, she spent more than three decades in West Michigan broadcasting, including nearly 28 years at WOOD-TV 8 in Grand Rapids from 1995 to 2023, where she also co-hosted the lifestyle program *eightWest*. She was the first woman in Michigan to earn the American Meteorological Society's Television Seal of Approval. DeBoer retired from FOX 17 earlier in 2026 before launching her congressional bid. Her campaign centers on border security, reducing federal spending, and what she describes as a patient-centered health care system.

Ryan Cushman is a Michigan National Guard veteran and local businessman who has spent most of his life in the 3rd District and lives in Tallmadge Township with his wife and five children. He has drawn a contrast with DeBoer on health care, calling for a system that ensures no American goes uninsured by pairing government-funded coverage with a competitive private sector.

J. Allen Fiorletta, a Grand Rapids-area trial attorney with more than 35 years of legal experience, also appears on the Republican primary ballot. He holds both a bachelor's degree and a law degree from Michigan State University, earned in 1985 and 1988, respectively.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in the Michigan 3rd Congressional District election has been almost nonexistent. Through June 30, independent expenditure committees reported a combined total of $143 in outside spending across the entire race.

The two committees on record are GiveGreen United Action, which spent $133, and Sierra Club Independent Action, which spent $10. Both directed their spending in support of Scholten. No outside group has spent a dollar opposing any candidate, and no communication costs were filed by any committee.

The Republican primary has drawn zero outside investment. No independent expenditure committee has weighed in on the DeBoer-Cushman contest. Total raised across all candidates in the race reached $2,997,202 through the most recent reporting period, though the outside spending picture tells a story of its own: organized outside groups have not treated this race as a priority.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rated the seat "Solid Democratic" as of July 16. Inside Elections rated it "Likely Democratic" as of June 30. The consensus rating, as of July 23, sits at "Likely Democratic."

On Kalshi, the Democratic candidate holds an 89.9% win probability against 10.1% for the Republican, based on $5,285 in trading volume as of July 26. The prediction market and the ratings organizations tell the same story: whoever wins the Republican primary on Aug. 4 will enter November as a long shot.

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