Who's In the Race

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, Libertarian Lydia Lynn Christensen, Green Party candidate Douglas P. Marsh, U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Timothy Long, independent TJ Stephens, and independent Walter Kristy in the November 3 general election in Michigan's U.S. Senate race. The seat is held by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who announced he would not seek a third term. ​

El-Sayed is a physician and public-health official who served as Detroit's health director and taught epidemiology at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health. He won the Aug. 4 Democratic primary with about 48% of the vote over Haley Stevens, a margin of roughly 13,800 votes.

Rogers served as a U.S. representative for Michigan from 2001 to 2015, chaired the House Intelligence Committee, and previously worked as an FBI agent. He ran unopposed in the Aug. 4 Republican primary.

What They Stand For

El-Sayed has proposed extending Medicare to every American "from cradle to grave without premiums, copays, or deductibles," according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for all prescription drugs and backing public manufacturing of essential medicines such as insulin,
  • Overturning Citizens United, banning corporate and special-interest political spending, and establishing public election funding,
  • Abolishing ICE and replacing it with an immigration system that includes a path to citizenship; and
  • Shutting down Line 5 and pursuing a pathway to 100 percent renewable energy.

Rogers has said he will stand with President Trump and "put America and Michigan first," according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States,
  • Lowering the cost of gas, groceries, and prescription drugs,
  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare for seniors; and
  • Prioritizing education over what he calls "indoctrination."

Endorsements

El-Sayed has been endorsed by Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Chuck Schumer and Gary Peters. Rogers has the backing of Donald Trump, George W. Bush and Sen. John Thune.

The Money Behind the Race

Through Sept. 30, El-Sayed had raised about $45.2 million and had about $3.8 million in cash on hand, more than twice the roughly $20.6 million Rogers raised, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Rogers had about $6.5 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30, more than El-Sayed's about $3.8 million.

Outside groups have spent about $21.1 million opposing El-Sayed, with the United Democracy Project accounting for about $20.1 million of that total, while about $3.7 million has been spent supporting him, led by Fighting for Michigan PAC at about $2.3 million.

Outside groups have spent about $14.3 million supporting Rogers, led by Americans for Prosperity Action at about $6.8 million, and about $6.7 million opposing him, with WinSenate the largest spender on that side at about $1.9 million.

Among itemized individual contributions to El-Sayed's campaign in the 2026 cycle, according to FEC filings, physicians top his donors at about $2.1 million, followed by attorneys at about $460,000 and CEOs at about $309,000. Donors who listed themselves as business owners or executives gave about $811,000 to El-Sayed, and donors listed as retired or not employed gave about $2.5 million.

CEOs top Rogers's itemized donors at about $152,000, followed by executives at about $141,000 and attorneys at about $84,000. Donors who listed themselves as business owners or executives gave about $630,000 to Rogers, and donors listed as retired or not employed gave about $2.1 million.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 12, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 15. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is El-Sayed, a 68.63% chance of winning as of Oct. 22. A polling average as of Oct. 18 showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 48.1 percent to 45.3 percent, a margin of 2.8 points.

Michigan's other Senate seat was won in 2024 by Democrat Elissa Slotkin with about 49% of the vote. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald Trump carried Michigan with about 50% of the vote. Democrats won seven of Michigan's 13 U.S. House seats in 2022; Republicans flipped the advantage in 2024, winning seven to Democrats' six.

The Democratic primary drew about 1.54 million total votes, compared with about 883,000 in the Republican primary, a gap of 654,300 votes.

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