Minnesota's 1st District Primary

Minnesota's 1st Congressional District stretches across southern Minnesota along the Iowa border and includes Rochester, Mankato and numerous rural communities. Agriculture plays a major role in the district's economy, and Republicans have held the seat since 2019.

Rep. Brad Finstad (R-MN) is seeking a third full term after first entering Congress through a 2022 special election following the death of Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN). Finstad faces Gregory A. Goetzman in the Aug. 11 Republican primary.

On the Democratic side, Rochester high school math teacher Jake Johnson faces small-business owner Alex Eaton. Johnson received the DFL endorsement at the party's 1st Congressional District convention in May.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Finstad has represented Minnesota's 1st District since August 2022, when he won a special election following Hagedorn's death. He won reelection in 2024 with 58.5% of the vote.

Finstad serves on the House Agriculture, Armed Services and Small Business committees. His legislative work has included agriculture, crop insurance and rural development issues. He voted for the House version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in May 2025 and said the legislation would prevent tax increases, increase border and defense spending and reduce federal spending. The House passed the bill 215-214. He has also supported the Trump administrations military actions against Iran.

Gregory A. Goetzman is challenging Finstad for the Republican nomination for the second consecutive election cycle. Goetzman also challenged Finstad in the 2024 Republican primary, when Finstad won 90.9% of the vote. Limited additional information about Goetzman's professional background and 2026 platform is publicly available.

Democratic Primary

Jake Johnson is a Rochester high school math teacher and longtime educator who grew up in Stewartville. He has taught for roughly two decades and is a member of Education Minnesota.

Johnson won the 1st Congressional District DFL endorsement at the party's May 3 convention and received endorsements from Education Minnesota and former Republican Gov. Arne Carlson, who later became an independent. He has centered his campaign on affordability, education and government accountability, and supports Second Amendment rights while also backing universal background checks and red flag laws.

Alex Eaton is a small-business owner from Vasa who entered the DFL primary against Johnson. He launched a 277-mile walk across southern Minnesota during the campaign to meet voters and promote his policy platform. Eaton supports universal single-payer health care, eliminating federal income taxes on the first $80,000 of household income and $40,000 for individual filers, a universal basic income and universal pre-K beginning at age 3.

The Money Behind the Race

Finstad and Johnson dominate fundraising in the race, with the two campaigns reporting nearly $3.8 million in combined receipts through June 30.

Finstad reported $1.92 million in receipts during the 2025-26 election cycle. His campaign spent approximately $766,751 and entered July with about $1.21 million in cash on hand.

Johnson narrowly trails Finstad in total receipts. His campaign reported $1.87 million raised through June 30, including approximately $1.75 million from individuals. Johnson's campaign spent approximately $915,083 during the cycle.

Ratings vs. Odds

The nation's leading election forecasters favor Republicans in Minnesota's 1st District. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race Solid Republican and gives the district an R+6 Partisan Voting Index. Inside Elections also rates MN-01 Solid Republican.

The Cook Political Report noted that the district became competitive enough for Democrat Tim Walz to flip it in 2006. However, Republicans reclaimed the seat when Walz left Congress to run for governor in 2018 and have held it since.

The Kalshi market cited in the original draft gave Republicans a 76% probability of winning the general election as of Aug. 3, compared with 24% for Democrats. The market had recorded approximately $38,706 in trading volume at the time.

The prediction market therefore showed greater uncertainty than the Solid Republican ratings from Cook and Inside Elections, although both approaches favored the Republican nominee heading into November.

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