Minnesota's 7th District Primary

Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach heads into the Minnesota 7th District primary on Aug. 11 as the heavy favorite to keep her seat in one of the largest congressional districts in the state. Two Republicans and three Democrats will compete in separate party primaries held on the same day, with the winners advancing to a Nov. 3 general election.

The 7th District spans the western and northwestern portions of Minnesota, covering a broad expanse of rural communities and small cities. Every major race-rating outlet rates the seat Solid Republican, and prediction markets place the Republican nominee's chances of winning the general at more than 92 percent.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Michelle Fischbach (R-MN) has represented Minnesota's 7th Congressional District since 2021 after serving as Minnesota's lieutenant governor and president of the Minnesota Senate. In the 119th Congress, she serves on the House Committees on Ways and Means, Budget, Rules and Ethics. At the 2026 Republican District 7 convention, Fischbach defeated Dave Hughes to win the party's endorsement after multiple rounds of voting. Hughes had previously won the district endorsement in 2016 and 2018 and challenged Fischbach again in 2026. Both candidates initially pledged to honor the endorsement process, although Hughes remained on the primary ballot.

Democratic Primary (DFL)

Erik Osberg is a Wadena-based small business owner and former Rural Rebound Initiative coordinator for Otter Tail County. He won the DFL endorsement in April 2026, defeating Heather Keeler with 65% of the delegate vote on the first ballot.

Heather Keeler has represented District 4A in the Minnesota House since 2021. A member of the Yankton Sioux Tribe and Eastern Shoshone Nation, she authored legislation creating Minnesota's Office of Missing and Murdered Indigenous Relatives and has been active on environmental justice and tribal issues. During her congressional campaign, she received the endorsement of Advance Native Political Leadership, which supports Native candidates for public office.

Jared Adams also qualified for the DFL primary ballot.

The Money Behind the Race

Campaign finance filings show Fischbach remains the dominant fundraiser in the race.

According to Federal Election Commission filings through June 30, Fischbach reported more than $2.2 million in total receipts, more than $1.5 million in disbursements, and more than $700,000 in cash on hand, giving her a substantial financial advantage over the rest of the field.

Among Democrats, Osberg has built the strongest campaign operation. Through June 30, he reported approximately $307,950 in receipts and about $114,000 cash on hand. Keeler reported approximately $62,500 raised, while Adams reported little or no fundraising activity during the same reporting period.

Ratings vs. Odds

The nation's leading election forecasters agree Minnesota's 7th Congressional District strongly favors Republicans. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the district Solid Republican, indicating broad agreement that Republicans enter the general election as strong favorites.

Prediction markets reach a similar conclusion. As of Aug. 3, Kalshi traders gave Republicans a 92.1% probability of winning the district, compared with 7.9% for Democrats, based on approximately $2,756 in trading volume. Those figures represent a snapshot in time because prediction market prices change continuously.

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