Minnesota's 8th Congressional District Primary

Seven Democrats and two Republicans head to the polls Aug. 11 in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District primary, kicking off a race that major election forecasters unanimously rate Solid Republican heading into November.

Minnesota runs a traditional partisan primary: Republican and Democratic-Farmer-Labor voters cast ballots in separate party contests, and the top vote-getter in each advances to the Nov. 3 general election. There is no top-two or ranked-choice component in the congressional primary.

Rep. Pete Stauber (R-MN) is seeking a fifth term and faces Anthony Hamilton in the Republican primary. The Democratic contest features seven candidates competing for the nomination: Trina Swanson, Luke Gulbranson, Wendell Smith, Emanuel Anastos, Bob Helland, John-Paul McBride and John Munter.

The district stretches across the northeastern corner of Minnesota, anchored by the Iron Range mining communities, the port city of Duluth, and vast stretches of northern wilderness.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Stauber has represented the district since 2019. A Duluth native, former professional hockey player and former law enforcement officer, Stauber serves on the House Natural Resources, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Small Business committees.

Stauber has made mining and natural-resource development central to his work in Congress. He sponsored a resolution seeking to overturn the Biden administration's withdrawal of federal lands and minerals from leasing near the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, part of his broader push to expand mining opportunities in northeastern Minnesota.

Anthony Hamilton is challenging Stauber for the Republican nomination. Hamilton qualified for the Aug. 11 primary ballot and established Anthony Hamilton for Congress as his principal campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission.

Democratic Primary

Trina Swanson is a former federal employee who received the 8th Congressional District DFL endorsement. She describes herself as a political outsider motivated by the financial pressures she sees among friends and family across northern and central Minnesota, and is running on affordability, economic stability, and community investment.

Luke Gulbranson is a model, actor, and *Summer House* reality television personality who also holds union membership and owns a small business. He is running on affordability, union jobs, child care, and healthcare, and argues his Iron Range roots and working-class background give him a distinct profile against the DFL-endorsed Swanson.

Wendell Smith is a surgeon who has practiced at Essentia Health and Fairview Range and served in the U.S. Air Force. He is running on healthcare, jobs, and Iron Range issues.

Emanuel Anastos lives on the Vermilion Reservation and works as an Indian Child Welfare case manager for the Bois Forte Band of Chippewa. His candidacy centers on tribal communities and social services.

Bob Helland, John-Paul McBride, and John Munter also appear on the Democratic primary ballot.

The Money Behind the Race

Stauber holds a commanding financial advantage. Pete Stauber for Congress reported $1.94 million in total receipts from Jan. 1, 2025, through June 30, 2026, according to the Federal Election Commission. His campaign received approximately $832,936 from individuals and $900,660 from other political committees.

Stauber's campaign had spent more than $1 million during the election cycle and entered the summer with substantial cash available for the primary and general election.

Trina Swanson leads the Democratic field in reported fundraising. Trina for Congress reported $277,528 in receipts through June 30, including $267,259 from individual donors and $10,200 from other political committees. Her campaign spent $160,122 during the same period.

Luke Gulbranson reported $175,008 in receipts between April 14 and June 30. His campaign received approximately $163,596 from individuals, making individual donors the primary source of his early campaign financing.

Emanuel Anastos reported $5,915 in receipts through June 30, all from individual contributions. His campaign spent $5,868 during the same period.

Wendell Smith reported $3,415 in receipts through June 30, all from individual contributors. His campaign had $1,384 in cash on hand at the end of the reporting period.

Ratings vs. Odds

The major election forecasters favor Republicans in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District. The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican and gives the district an R+7 Partisan Voting Index. Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rate the district Solid Republican.

Prediction markets point in the same direction, although with more uncertainty. As of Aug. 3, Kalshi traders gave Republicans an 84% probability of winning the Nov. 3 general election, compared with 16% for Democrats. The market had recorded $11,720 in trading volume.

The forecasters and prediction market therefore agree that Republicans enter the general election favored to retain the district. Kalshi's 84% Republican probability, however, leaves more room for a Democratic upset than the unanimous Solid Republican ratings might suggest.

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