Who's In the Race

Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Republican Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-MN) face off in the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election, competing for an open seat after Democratic Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) decided not to seek reelection. ​

Both nominees won their Aug. 11 primaries. Klobuchar received approximately 90% of the Democratic vote in an eight-candidate field, while Demuth won the Republican primary with approximately 45% in a 10-candidate contest. Republican Phil Parrish finished second with approximately 32%.

Demuth's victory came in a more competitive primary, with her share of the vote approximately 13 percentage points higher than Parrish's.

Endorsements

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has endorsed Klobuchar, as has the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Those endorsements give Klobuchar backing from a former Cabinet official and the state's Democratic organization. Demuth has received endorsements from the Minnesota Gun Owners Caucus and the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Major race-rating outlets classify Minnesota's governor's race as Democratic-leaning, though they differ on the degree of the advantage. The Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Democratic, and Inside Elections rates it Likely Democratic. The Legis1 consensus rating was Likely Democratic as of Oct. 23.

A Legis1 polling average as of Oct. 26 shows Klobuchar leading Demuth 51% to 40%, a 11-point margin across 43 polls. A separate RealClearPolling average covering surveys conducted Oct. 2-28 places Klobuchar at 51.3% and Demuth at 39.3%, a 12-point margin.

Previous Elections

In the 2024 presidential election, Democrat Kamala Harris carried Minnesota with approximately 51% of the vote to Republican Donald Trump's 47%. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, giving it one of the longest continuous Democratic voting records in presidential elections.

In the 2022 governor's race, Walz defeated Republican Scott Jensen with 52.27% of the vote to Jensen's 44.61%, a margin of 7.66 percentage points and 192,408 votes. Klobuchar's 11-point lead in the Oct. 26 Legis1 polling average is wider than Walz's 2022 winning margin, although polling and certified election results measure different things.

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