Who's In the Race

Democrat Peggy Flanagan, Republican Michele Tafoya, and independent Marisa Simonetti face each other in the November 3 general election in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race. The seat is open: Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) announced she would not seek reelection in 2026, according to the Associated Press. ​

Flanagan has served as Minnesota's lieutenant governor since 2019, previously served in the state House starting in 2015, and is a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe. She won the Aug. 11 Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary with about 59% of the vote over runner-up Angie Craig, who received about 39%.

Tafoya is a former NBC Sports sideline reporter and four-time Emmy winner known for her work on Sunday Night Football. She won the Aug. 11 Republican primary with about 52% of the vote over runner-up Adam Schwarze, who received about 24%.

What They Stand For

Flanagan has proposed Medicare for All, saying "healthcare is a human right," according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • A $17 federal minimum wage indexed to inflation and national paid family and medical leave,
  • Universal childcare and an expanded Child Tax Credit for middle- and working-class families,
  • Banning corporate money in elections, requiring donor disclosure, and prohibiting federal officials from trading stocks; and
  • Clean-energy investment in wind and solar and climate adaptation measures.

Tafoya has proposed tougher fraud enforcement and stronger oversight of public funds, with federal consequences for states that fail to implement anti-fraud controls, according to her campaign website. She also supports:

  • Increased funding, equipment, and training for law enforcement, with tougher penalties and closer cooperation among federal, state, and local agencies,
  • Protecting Social Security, Medicare, and national defense while cutting federal spending and waste, according to CBS News Minnesota,
  • Reducing healthcare costs and combating overcharges by hospitals and pharmaceutical companies, according to CBS News Minnesota; and
  • Voter ID requirements and paper ballots, describing her goal as making it "easy to vote and hard to cheat."

Simonetti, the independent candidate, has called for increased school funding, less red tape for small businesses, more affordable housing, and greater government accountability, and has criticized immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota as abusive, according to MPR News.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 22, Flanagan had raised about $6.5 million and had about $1.1 million in cash on hand, while Tafoya had raised about $5.3 million and had about $1.4 million on hand, giving Tafoya more cash despite trailing in total receipts by roughly $1.2 million.

Outside groups have added substantially to the contest: outside groups spent about $7 million opposing Flanagan, with North Star Dawn PAC as the largest single spender against her at about $6 million, and Unite to Win contributing about $1 million of that total; about $270,000 was spent supporting Flanagan, with North Star Dawn PAC accounting for about $200,000 of that. About $444,000 was spent opposing Tafoya, all of it from Sheepdog PAC; about $20,000 supported her, from Minnesota Forward.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the seat Likely Democratic as of Oct. 12; Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 15; and Inside Elections rates it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Flanagan, an 86.14% chance of winning as of Oct. 20.

The polling and historical context suggest Democrats enter the final stretch with structural advantages, though the race is closer than recent statewide results. Flanagan led Tafoya by 3.3 percentage points in the polling average, 46.4% to 43.1%, as of Oct. 15.

That margin is narrower than Democrat Amy Klobuchar's victory in Minnesota's other Senate seat in 2024, when Klobuchar won with about 56% of the vote. In both 2022 and 2024, Democrats and Republicans each won four of Minnesota's eight U.S. House seats. Democrat Kamala Harris carried Minnesota in the 2024 presidential race with about 51% of the vote.

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