Who's In the Race

Republican incumbent Rep. Michael Guest (R-MS), Democrat Michael Chiaradio and Libertarian Erik Kiehle will face off for Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District seat in the November 3 general election. ​

Guest has represented the district since 2019, after spending 25 years as a prosecutor in Madison and Rankin counties, first as an assistant district attorney from 1994 to 2008 and then as district attorney from 2008 to 2019. He ran unopposed in the March 10 Republican primary.

Chiaradio holds a master's degree from Felician University, previously supervised work for Maximus, a government contractor that helped states implement the Affordable Care Act, and moved to Shubuta, Mississippi, in 2023, where he owns and works on a regenerative farm. He also ran unopposed in the March 10 Democratic primary.

Kiehle works in property management, and is also a volunteer fireman and private pilot.

What They Stand For

Guest supports stricter voter identification requirements under the SAVE America Act, saying, "the quicker we can get it passed, the better," according to his Congressional biography website. He has also supported lowering taxes, a six-week abortion ban, and opposing gun-control laws.

Chiaradio has proposed expanding access to lower-cost health care, reducing out-of-pocket costs and premiums, and investing in modern medical facilities, according to his campaign website. He has also supported investment in "factories, farms, and infrastructure" and in people's ability to participate in the economy, expanding USDA homebuilding programs, modern infrastructure investment, and support for small producers, lowering barriers for small farmers through favorable loans, debt forgiveness for eligible borrowers, and expanded equipment rental programs; and an orderly immigration system with robust border security.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Guest had raised about $822,761 and had about $962,515 in the bank, more than five times what Chiaradio raised in total, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Guest's cash on hand stood at $962,515 as of June 30. Meanwhile, Chiaradio had raised about $155,400 but carried $17,149 in debt against only $23,208 cash on hand.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 99.9% chance of winning as of Oct. 15.

The district's voting track record backs these predictions. Guest won the district with about 70% in 2022, then ran unopposed in 2024. Republicans have won three of Mississippi's four U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024. Nationwide, Donald Trump carried Mississippi in the 2024 presidential race with about 61% of the vote.

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