The Race
Eric Burlison, the incumbent Republican, is running for re-election on November 3, 2026, in a district that's already been stamped "Solid Republican" by the consensus raters. On the Democratic side, Missi Hesketh is the sole challenger, while Grayson Hunt secured the Republican primary nod, and John Casey didn't make the general election cut. A Libertarian candidate rounds out the four-person general election field.
Ratings
The midterm race ratings from the major forecasters paint a crystal-clear picture: Missouri's 7th is rated as Solid Republican as of June 18, 2026. In plain English, that means Republicans are heavily favored to hold this seat. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball aren't hedging their bets here, they're calling this one for the GOP.
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, 2026, Kalshi's election prediction markets give Republicans a 96.09% probability of winning the district, while Democrats are sitting at just 3.91%.
Experts vs. Markets
The consensus congressional race predictions match the Kalshi odds almost perfectly. The only real drama will unfold in the August 4 Republican primary, where three candidates are competing for the nomination. After that, it's smooth sailing for the GOP all the way to November.
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