Who's In the Race

Three candidates advanced out of the June 2 primaries to compete in the Nov. 3 general election for the Montana U.S. Senate Seat (Class II), an open seat. Republican Kurt Alme, a former U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana, won his primary with 76.2 percent of the vote.

Democrat Alani Bankhead, a retired U.S. Air Force officer, won her primary with 44 percent. Kyle Austin won the Libertarian primary with 53 percent of the vote. The seat is open: incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) is not running for re-election to this seat.

What They Stand For

Kurt Alme (Republican)

Alme's campaign website organizes his message around four pillars: "Montana Roots," "Making Life More Affordable," "Making Communities Safer," and "Protecting Montana Values."

On public safety, Alme has stated: "We need to keep the border secure, support law enforcement, prioritize prosecuting violent criminals, and investigate drug trafficking organizations all the way up to the cartels, so we can tear them out by their roots," according to his Montana Free Press 2026 Election Guide questionnaire response. His prosecutorial background as a former federal prosecutor is central to his "Making Communities Safer" pillar, which consistently lists support for law enforcement as a core commitment.

On the economy, "Making Life More Affordable" is a named pillar of his campaign website, where he pledges tax relief and reduced burdens on Montana families and businesses. Press coverage has noted that Alme's campaign has been deliberately low-profile, with limited detailed policy specifics beyond the four website pillars; voters are largely left to refer to his website for information.

Alani Bankhead (Democrat)

Bankhead's campaign website hosts a positions page described as "where Alani stands, in her own words: each one backed by a real number and a list of concrete actions."

On healthcare, Bankhead supports redirecting a portion of the federal defense budget, specifically what she describes as "hundreds of billions in end-of-year use-lose military spending," to fund rural healthcare, framing it as fiscally responsible rather than a cut to national security, according to her Montana Free Press election guide questionnaire response. Public lands is listed as one of two issues unique to Montana that she says she intends to address in the Senate, with a dedicated position on her campaign website.

On housing, Bankhead has stated she would support raising capital gains exemptions as a mechanism to boost housing supply and address the cost of living in Montana. She has also stated she would support enforcing the War Powers Resolution, which governs the president's authority to commit U.S. forces to armed conflict without a congressional declaration of war.

On elections, her campaign website states: "Montana runs Montana's elections, and that's exactly how it should be. The federal government has one job here: protect the right to vote, and otherwise stay out of the rolls, the machines, and your ballot."

Kyle Austin (Libertarian)

Austin, a fourth-generation Montanan from the Hi-line, centers his platform on three core priorities: healthcare reform, reducing the cost of living, and protecting individual rights.

His signature proposal is a plan he calls "Healthcare 2.0," which he describes as a comprehensive overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system, targeting what he characterizes as wasted spending, insurance industry corruption, and government overreach, according to his Montana Free Press election guide questionnaire response and a Montana Public Radio candidate interview. He has also proposed universal licensure reciprocity, allowing doctors, dentists, nurses, and pharmacists to be licensed in every state, as a way to expand access and reduce costs.

Reducing the size and reach of the federal government is a central theme of his platform, as described across his campaign website and a KTVQ news interview. His background as a Billings business owner anchors his advocacy for small businesses, with reducing regulatory and cost burdens listed as a stated priority on his campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have spent more than $8.2 million in the Montana Senate race, with $5,790,363 spent in support of candidates across 70 filings and $2,415,878 spent in opposition across 37 filings.

Spending targeted at Democratic candidates totals $4,442,836 across 59 filings, while spending targeted at Republican candidates totals $2,646,053 across 29 filings. The aggregation also captured records falling outside those two party buckets; totals for those candidates are not available in this breakdown.

The three leading outside spenders with cited records are Progressive Vet PAC ($2,534,012), Montana Freedom PAC ($371,949), and American Mission ($286,358). The leaderboard provides totals only; whether each committee spent in support or opposition of a specific candidate is not indicated by these figures.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major race-rating service calls this contest solidly in Republican hands. Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Sept. 23; Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections both rated it "Solid Republican" as of Sept. 22 and Sept. 17, respectively.

On the prediction market Kalshi, as of Sept. 28, the Republican nominee held an implied probability of 98.48 percent, compared to 1.52 percent for the Democratic nominee.

A polling average compiled by Decision Desk HQ, based on 40 polls with a latest poll date of Sept. 15, showed Alme leading with 42.4 percent, followed by independent candidate Seth Bodnar at 27.4 percent and Bankhead at 18.2 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Montana's recent federal election history reinforces the state's deep-red lean. In 2022, Republicans won both of Montana's U.S. House seats: Ryan K. Zinke took the 1st District with 49.6 percent, and Matthew M. Rosendale Sr. won the 2nd District with 56.6 percent.

In 2024, Republicans swept all three federal congressional races: Zinke held the 1st District with 52.3 percent, Troy Downing won the 2nd District with 66 percent, and Tim Sheehy won the U.S. Senate Class I seat with 52.6 percent. At the top of the ticket in 2024, Republican Donald Trump carried Montana with 58.4 percent of the vote.

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