The Race

Independent Seth Bodnar has raised approximately $4.92 million for Montana's open U.S. Senate seat, compared with $2.87 million for Republican Kurt Alme. Bodnar's receipts are roughly 1.7 times Alme's, although their reporting periods differ: Oct. 14 for Bodnar and Sept. 30 for Alme. ​

Their cash positions tell a different story. Bodnar reported approximately $581,000 in cash on hand as of Oct. 14, compared with Alme's $840,000 as of Sept. 30. Neither reported outstanding campaign debt.

Alme won the June 2 Republican primary, defeating Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child. Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead defeated Reilly Neill and three other candidates. Libertarian nominee Kyle Austin is also on the Nov. 3 ballot and has contributed or loaned substantial personal funds to his campaign.

Who's Writing the Checks?

Bodnar's largest reported occupational donor groups include lawyers ($185,000), CEOs ($103,000), investors ($68,000) and executives ($50,000). Alme's include CEOs ($53,000), bankers ($32,000), consultants ($32,000) and lawyers ($31,000).

Retired or unemployed donors accounted for approximately $1.3 million, or 48% of Bodnar's itemized individual contributions, compared with $201,000, or 22%, for Alme. According to the campaign finance breakdown provided, other committees accounted for about 34% of Alme's receipts and 2% of Bodnar's. These occupational and committee percentages must be reconciled with the underlying FEC filings.

What to Watch

Outside spending is a major factor in Montana's Senate contest. Independent groups have spent millions supporting and opposing the candidates, including substantial spending in the Democratic primary and the general election. The original $8.2 million estimate understates reported districtwide spending.

Although Bodnar leads in fundraising, Alme held approximately $259,000 more cash at their respective reporting dates. Different reporting periods and substantial independent expenditures complicate direct comparisons. Outside spending does not enter candidates' campaign accounts, and fundraising alone does not determine the outcome.

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