The Race

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is seeking his first full six-year term in the U.S. Senate after winning the Republican primary on May 12. He will face Cindy Burbank (D-NE), who won the Democratic primary, while independent Dan Osborn is also expected to appear on the Nov. 3 general election ballot after qualifying by petition.

Additional minor-party candidates are expected to appear on the ballot. Ricketts was appointed to the Senate in 2023 following the resignation of Ben Sasse (R-NE) and won a 2024 special election to complete the remainder of the term.

Campaign finance underscores that Nebraska's Senate race has effectively become a contest between Ricketts and independent Osborn. According to Federal Election Commission filings through June 30, Ricketts has raised more than $11.2 million, while Osborn has raised more than $5.7 million through his authorized campaign committees.

Burbank (D-NE) has raised significantly less than either candidate, making Ricketts and Osborn the dominant financial players in the race. Together, the three candidates have raised roughly $17 million, reflecting the national attention the contest has attracted.

Ratings

The nation's leading election forecasters agree that Republicans are favored to retain Nebraska's Senate seat. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Likely Republican, indicating Republicans enter the general election with a clear advantage while leaving open the possibility of a competitive race.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets point to an even stronger Republican advantage. As of June 29, Kalshi traders gave Republicans a 99.7% probability of winning Nebraska's Senate race, compared with 0.3% for Democrats. Those odds reflected the Democratic nominee only and did not account for the separate market dynamics surrounding independent candidate Osborn.

Experts vs. Markets

Professional election forecasters and prediction markets both indicate Republicans are favored to retain Nebraska's Senate seat, but the presence of Osborn complicates the picture.

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race Likely Republican, signaling that Pete Ricketts (R-NE) enters the general election with a clear advantage. Kalshi's market assigns Republicans a 99.7% probability of victory, though those odds reflect the likelihood of the Republican Party holding the seat rather than the competitiveness of the overall field.

Unlike a traditional two-party contest, Nebraska's Senate race features a high-profile independent candidate in Osborn, whose fundraising and statewide name recognition distinguish him from most independent candidates. While forecasters and prediction markets continue to favor Ricketts, Osborn's candidacy makes the race more complex than a simple Republican-versus-Democrat matchup and could reshape the coalition of voters opposing the incumbent.

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