What Happened?

If an ad attacking independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn has hit your TV, phone or mailbox in Nebraska this fall, there’s a good chance one new group paid for it. Cornhusker Majority, a super PAC that can raise and spend unlimited money but can’t coordinate with campaigns, has reported about $7.08 million in spending on the race, according to a Legis1 review of its spending reports. About $6.95 million of that went against Osborn, and $132,000 went to ads supporting Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE). ​

The Scottsbluff group registered with the Federal Election Commission on Sept. 10 and began spending within a week. According to a Bloomberg report Tuesday, Oct. 13, the Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC working to elect Republican senators, was behind about $7 million of that spending and plans to put $8 million more behind Ricketts, for a Nebraska total of roughly $15 million.

Why Does It Matter To Me?

The money is arriving as the race tightens. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved it from Likely to Leans Republican on Wednesday, Oct. 14, and Inside Elections rates it Lean Republican, while the Cook Political Report still lists it as Likely Republican. A YouGov poll taken Sept. 24 through Oct. 3 had Osborn at 48% and Ricketts at 47%, while a Republican-aligned poll released Monday, Oct. 12, showed Ricketts up 46% to 43%, according to Newsweek’s roundup of farm state Senate races.

Most of the anti-Osborn money flowed through three vendors:

  • Flexpoint Media: About $4.57 million in ads, with weekly buys growing from $763,000 on Sept. 16 to $1.51 million on Oct. 7.
  • Alamo Intelligence LLC: $1.5 million in ads across four placements.
  • Caliber Contact: About $789,000 for printed mail and postage.

Both Sides, Now

Republicans are working to hold a state Donald Trump carried by about 20 points in 2024, according to Axios. Cornhusker Majority’s first ad called Osborn a “phony ‘independent’” who is really a Democrat, the same message Ricketts pressed by calling him “Democrat Dan” at least 40 times in a recent debate, according to a campaign roundup from The Downballot.

Osborn, a former labor leader and Navy veteran who lost to Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) by 6.5 points in 2024, has pledged not to caucus with either party, and Democrats aren’t running a candidate. Groups backing him have also spent heavily. Before Cornhusker Majority launched, pro-Osborn groups and Ricketts’ allies had each spent about $3 million, though Republicans had reserved $4.9 million in future ads to $423,000 for Osborn’s side as of mid-September, according to the same roundup.

What Happens Next?

Cornhusker Majority’s first full financial report, which must list who funded the group through Sept. 30, is due Thursday, Oct. 15. A second report covering Oct. 1 through 14 is due Thursday, Oct. 22, under the FEC’s October filing schedule, and with the election less than three weeks away, the group must now report any new spending of $1,000 or more within 24 hours. Nebraska voters will choose between Ricketts, Osborn and three minor-party candidates on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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