The Race
Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is not seeking re-election for New Hampshire's Senate seat. The Democratic primary features 5 candidates, including Chris Pappas, Karishma Manzur, and Jared Sullivan, while Republicans are fielding 8 primary contenders, including Scott P. Brown, Dan Innis, and John E. Sununu, both happening on September 8.
Ratings
The expert consensus is crystal clear: this race leans Democratic. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all agree on a Lean Democratic rating.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi's prediction markets are far more bullish on Democrats than the expert consensus suggests. As of June 29, the platform pegged the Democratic candidate at an 84.31% win probability, while Republicans sat at 15.69%.
Experts vs. Markets
The gap between expert ratings and prediction market odds is striking. Expert consensus says "competitive," but Kalshi's 84% figure suggests the money sees something the traditional forecasters don't.
In a race this crowded and this early, prediction markets may be capturing momentum that hasn't yet shown in traditional polling. The September primaries will be the real test of whether Kalshi's confidence holds up.
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