Who's In the Race

Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Greggory D. Hull face each other in New Mexico's governor's race on Nov. 3. The seat is open because incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is not running for reelection. ​

Both nominees won their primaries on June 2. Haaland took the Democratic contest with 156,861 votes, well ahead of runner-up Sam Bregman's 60,189. Hull won the Republican primary with 56,412 votes from a field of six candidates.

Haaland is a former U.S. Secretary of the Interior and a member of the Laguna Pueblo, making her one of the most prominent Native American politicians in the country. Hull is a businessman and political newcomer to statewide office.

Endorsements

Haaland has assembled a wide coalition of high-profile backers. Barack Obama, Pete Buttigieg, Lynn Trujillo, and Gretchen Whitmer have all endorsed Haaland.

Hull has been endorsed by former governor Gary Johnson, among others. Johnson, having served two terms as governor, is well known in New Mexico politics.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Every major race-rating outlet puts Haaland in the lead. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 28. Inside Elections rates it Likely Democratic, updated Oct. 23. The consensus rating is Likely Democratic, updated Oct. 23.

A Silver Bulletin polling average as of Oct. 9 shows Haaland leading Hull 48 percent to 40 percent, a margin of 7.9 points, with about 12 percent of voters still undecided. The undecided share, at roughly one in eight likely voters, is large enough to matter.

Previous Elections

New Mexico's recent voting history favors Democrats. In the 2024 presidential election, New Mexico backed Democrat Kamala D. Harris with 52 percent of the vote over Republican Donald J. Trump's 46 percent.

In the last governor's race, in 2022, Lujan Grisham defeated Republican Mark Ronchetti 370,168 votes to 324,701, a margin of 45,467 votes. Hull would need to outperform Ronchetti's showing to have a realistic path to victory in November.

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