Who's In the Race

Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ) faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett and independent Seamus Patrick O'Toole in the November 3 general election in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District. Kean has represented the district since 2023 and previously served in the New Jersey state legislature for more than two decades, including 14 years as New Jersey Senate Republican Leader. ​

Bennett is a Navy veteran who served as a helicopter pilot and experimental test pilot, earned an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, and has worked in healthcare technology.

Kean ran unopposed in the June 2 Republican primary. Bennett won the June 2 Democratic primary with about 45% of the vote in a four-way field, more than double the share of runner-up Tina Shah, who received about 20%. O'Toole is listed on the ballot as an independent whose ballot slogan is "Stop Israel's Genocide."

What They Stand For

Bennett has proposed cutting red tape and increasing housing construction to make homes more affordable, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Fully restoring the SALT deduction for New Jersey taxpayers,
  • Lowering energy costs by investing in "clean, reliable, and domestic energy sources,"
  • Paid family leave and full funding for elder care; and
  • A clear motivation, objective, and exit strategy before any military action on Iran, according to WHYY.

Kean has supported pro-growth policies and removing regulatory barriers to job creation, according to his official House website. He also supports:

  • Reducing the national debt and deficit by eliminating duplicative programs and cutting wasteful spending,
  • An "all-the-above" energy policy to boost domestic production and provide affordable, reliable energy,
  • Reduced federal involvement in education and greater authority for parents and local leaders; and
  • U.S. support for Israel and its right to defend itself.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Kean had raised about $4.9 million and held about $3.6 million in cash on hand, roughly two and a half times the about $1.4 million Bennett had in the bank; Bennett had raised about $4.3 million over the same period. Kean's cash advantage over Bennett stood at about $2.2 million as of that date.

Outside groups have spent about $1.3 million supporting Bennett, led by VoteVets at about $1 million, and about $661,000 opposing her, all from Real Change PAC; outside groups have spent about $292,000 opposing Kean, with Your Community PAC accounting for about $289,000 of that total, according to Federal Election Commission filings through Sept. 30.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Lean Democratic as of Oct. 9, Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 11, and the consensus rating was also Lean Democratic as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Bennett, a 92.05% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 19; Republicans, whose nominee is Kean, stood at 7.95%.

Kean won the district in both 2022 and 2024 with about 51% of the vote each time, and his vote share rose only 0.368 points between the two races. Democrats won nine of New Jersey's 12 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Republicans holding three. Democrat Kamala Harris carried New Jersey in the 2024 presidential election with about 52% of the vote.

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