Who's In the Race

The 2026 race in New York's 11th U.S. House District will decide who holds the seat, with $3,450 in outside spending opposing incumbent Nicole Malliotakis. Democrat Michael DeCillis advanced from the June 23 primary with 57.84 percent of the vote. Malliotakis advanced from the June 23 primary uncontested.

What They Stand For

#### DeCillis

  • Checks and balances: DeCillis says Congress needs to function as a co-equal branch and supports legislative guardrails to protect constitutional and civil rights and prevent governance through executive actions alone, according to DeCillis for Congress.
  • Affordability: His campaign identifies groceries, gasoline, health care, and housing as increasingly unaffordable while criticizing stagnant wages amid rising costs, according to DeCillis for Congress.
  • Health care and safety-net programs: Coverage of his campaign describes support for stronger social safety nets and more equitable access to health care, according to Staten Island Advance/SILive coverage.
  • Taxes and public services: He has been reported as supporting a more progressive tax structure to fund public schools and government services, according to Staten Island Advance/SILive coverage.
  • Immigration and democratic protections: Available campaign descriptions emphasize protecting immigrants and opposing what DeCillis characterizes as inhumane immigration policies, alongside a broader focus on democratic protections, according to City and State New York.

#### Malliotakis

  • Immigration and voting eligibility: Her campaign says she opposed legislation allowing undocumented immigrants to register to vote in New York State and sued New York City over records associated with the IDNYC identification-card program, according to The Issues.
  • Property taxes and affordability: Her campaign identifies property taxes as a major affordability issue and supports addressing disparities in property-tax burdens affecting New York City communities, according to her campaign website.
  • Public safety: Her campaign highlights opposition to policies associated with defunding the New York Police Department and presents reducing crime and supporting police officers as priorities, according to her NYC Police Benevolent Association endorsement announcement.
  • Vaccines: Malliotakis has stated that vaccination decisions should be made between individuals and their doctors and opposed blanket vaccine mandates, according to her campaign website republishing a News 12 interview.
  • Spending and accountability: She has criticized spending on New York City’s ThriveNYC mental-health program and called for investigation or accountability regarding the use of taxpayer funds, according to her campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Race-specific aggregation shows $3,450 in outside spending tied to the Republican side of the race. That spending was directed against Republican Malliotakis, according to the underlying filing records.
The leading spender in the committee aggregation was FREE AND FAIR DEMOCRACY PAC with $3,450.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Sept. 25. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race Solid Republican as of Sept. 22. Inside Elections rated the race Solid Republican as of Sept. 17. The consensus rating was Solid Republican as of Sept. 28.

On Kalshi, the market gave Republicans a 0.9281 probability and Democrats a 0.0719 probability as of Sept. 29, with volume of 28,155.

In 2022, Republicans won eight of 26 House races in New York, while Democrats won 18 of 26 House races and one Senate race. In 2024, Republicans won four of the House races, while Democrats won seven of the House races. The available 2024 data covers only a subset of New York’s delegation, so it is a partial picture rather than a complete cycle-to-cycle comparison.

Malliotakis won New York’s 11th U.S. House District with 56.5 percent of the vote in 2022. The available 2024 data covers only a subset of New York's congressional delegation and provides a partial picture rather than a complete cycle-to-cycle comparison.

In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris (D) won New York with 55.1 percent of the vote.

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