Who's In the Race

Democrat Micah Lasher faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November 3 general election in New York's 12th Congressional District. The seat is open because Rep. Jerrold Nadler announced he would not seek reelection. ​

Lasher has represented New York State Assembly District 69 since 2025, and before that served as New York State policy director, chief of staff to the state attorney general, and an aide to Rep. Nadler. He won the June 23 Democratic primary with about 39 percent of the vote; runner-up Alex Bores received about 35 percent, according to Ballotpedia.

Shinkle is a corporate attorney and SAG-AFTRA member who studied economics at MIT and earned a law degree from Harvard Law School; her campaign biography notes stints at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Israel, and the Bank for International Settlements. The Republican primary was canceled, and Shinkle advanced unopposed.

What They Stand For

Lasher has proposed universal health care as "a right, not a privilege," backing Medicare for All or a similar plan, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Expanding federal investment in child care, housing tax credits, rental assistance, and raising the national minimum wage,
  • Abolishing ICE, strengthening detainees' due-process protections, and expanding voting rights,
  • Restoring abortion rights nationwide, opposing a national abortion ban, and protecting access to abortion medication, IVF, and contraception; and
  • Universal background checks for gun sales, reinstating the assault-weapons ban, and a national red-flag law.

Shinkle has proposed reducing federal income taxes on W-2 wages, saying the goal is to "allow people to keep more of what they earn," according to her campaign website. She also supports:

  • Increasing housing supply through streamlined permitting, repurposing unused offices, and upzoning near transit, while opposing price controls,
  • School choice, greater curriculum transparency, and expanded investment in vocational and STEM education,
  • A "pro-safety, pro-community law enforcement agenda," including more resources for federal prosecutors; and
  • More competition and price transparency in health care, and prosecuting sources of funding for antisemitic violence.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Lasher had raised about $3.3 million and had about $1.1 million in cash on hand, roughly 21 times more in receipts than Shinkle, who had raised about $155,000 and had about $84,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Lasher carried $500,000 in debt as of that date, equal to about 15 percent of his receipts.

Outside groups spent about $10.8 million supporting Lasher, led by Stand for New York PAC, and about $3 million opposing him, led by Nuestro PAC, according to Federal Election Commission filings through Sept. 30.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Lasher, a 98.66 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 20.

The district's recent history helps explain that consensus. Nadler won the seat with about 75 percent of the vote in 2024 and about 74 percent in 2022, a gain of about 1 percentage point in vote share between the two elections. Democrats have dominated New York's congressional delegation in both recent cycles, winning 18 of the state's 26 House seats in 2022 and 19 in 2024. Kamala Harris carried New York in the 2024 presidential race with about 55 percent of the vote.

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