The Race for New York's 13th Congressional District

New York's 13th congressional district is heading to a general election on November 3, 2026, and the early verdict is that this is Democratic territory. Darializa Avila Chevalier won the heated Democratic primary on June 23 with 49% of the vote, emerging from a four-candidate field to face off against the Republican nominee in what looks like a heavily tilted race.

The Candidates

Avila Chevalier, born in Miami to immigrant Dominican parents, was endorsed by New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani during the primary. Chevalier obtained a bachelor's degree from Columbia University and later lived in the Palestinian city of Nablus, an experience which she said helped to shape her anti-imperialistic outlook and political consciousness. Avila Chevalier has taught classes at Columbia University, NYU, and CUNY Lehman.

Manual Williams, the Republican nominee and challenger who ran uncontested in the primary, is a native New Yorker and Army veteran.

The Money Behind the Race

According to FEC filings, Adriano Espaillat (the incumbent Democratic contender that many thought would win Democratic nomination) lead the candidates' financial totals in the primary. Espaillat raised more than $2.1 million in total receipts for the election, yet failed to advance beyond the primary. Avila Chevalier came in second in terms of fundraising, with a total of almost $1 million in total receipts as of June 3.

Total outside spending on Democratic primary candidates amounted to around $1.6 million. The largest contribution, of $600,000 in support of Espaillat, came from Bold America, with the second-largest donation (also given in support of Espaillat and amounting to $521,500) coming from the Latino Victory Fund. Other donators included the Justice Democrats PAC, American Priorities, and Sierra Club Independent Action.

Ratings vs Odds

All three major political forecasters are in agreement: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball have all rated New York's 13th as "solid Democratic."

Prediction markets are telling a similar story: as of July 14, Kalshi placed Democrats'/Avila Chevalier's odds of winning the seat at 98%. The real fight was for the Democratic nomination, which Avila Chevalier narrowly secured by a margin of 3.5%.

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