Who's In the Race

The 2026 New York’s 20th U.S. House District race pits incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko against Republican Ralph Ambrosio.

What They Stand For

#### Paul Tonko

Tonko presents his campaign around affordable health care, climate and clean energy, gun-violence prevention, economic opportunity and campaign-finance reform.

On health care, Tonko’s campaign website says access to affordable health care is essential and supports preserving effective provisions of the Affordable Care Act while changing provisions that do not work.

On climate and energy, his issues page identifies climate policy, science funding, clean energy, and technological innovation as priorities. Tonko’s campaign lists reducing gun violence as a priority.

Tonko’s campaign website says historically underserved communities should have equal access to long-term opportunities, regardless of race or gender.

Tonko’s campaign opposes rigged economic policies and dark money, and supports overturning Citizens United, as detailed on its action pages and Citizens United page.

#### Ralph Ambrosio

Ambrosio’s campaign website provides biographical information, but no detailed issue platform in the indexed material, so the positions below draw mainly on news coverage and a candidate questionnaire.

Ambrosio says he wants to lower living costs through tax cuts and reduced regulation, according to *Times Union*, *City & State New York*, and the *Daily Gazette*.

He has also said he wants to bolster law enforcement, according to *Daily Gazette* coverage.

The same coverage says he supports border security. Asked about climate change and fossil-fuel emissions in a Protect the Adirondacks! questionnaire, Ambrosio replied, “The climate is always changing”; the questionnaire gives no further policy detail.

The Money Behind the Race

As of Sept. 29, race records show $10 in outside spending, all supporting Tonko through one Sierra Club Independent Action expenditure. Periodic reports run through Sept. 21, with notices through Sept. 29; totals exclude non-counting transactions and duplicate notices and are rounded to whole dollars.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook (Sept. 25), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Sept. 22), and Inside Elections (Sept. 17) rated the race Solid Democratic; the Sept. 28 consensus rating did too. As of Sept. 29, Kalshi gave Democrats a 0.973 probability and Republicans 0.027, with no other outcome assigned; volume was 1,759 contracts.

Statewide, Democrats won 13 of 22 House races in 2022 (Republicans won nine) and split the 12 races shown in 2024, six each; Democrats also won the 2022 Senate race. Kamala Harris won New York’s 2024 presidential vote with 55.1 percent.

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