Who's In the Race
Democrat Blake Gendebien faces Republican Anthony Constantino and independent write-in Christopher Schmidt in the Nov. 3 general election in New York's 21st Congressional District. The seat is open as incumbent Rep. Elise M. Stefanik (R-NY) said she would not seek re-election, citing a desire to focus on her family.
The U.S. Supreme Court paused a court-ordered redraw of New York's congressional map in March 2026, allowing the existing district lines to stand for this election.
Gendebien is a second-generation dairy farmer, small-business owner, and former vice chair of the Agri-Mark cooperative board from New York's North Country. He won the Democratic primary, topping runner-up Stuart Amoriell. Constantino founded and leads Sticker Mule, a printing and technology company based in Amsterdam, New York, and drew attention for installing a large "Vote for Trump" sign atop his company's factory. He took the Republican primary with about 59 percent of the vote. Schmidt, a Washington County native, is running as an independent write-in candidate.
What They Stand For
Gendebien has proposed protecting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid from cuts, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:
- Lowering costs by cutting regulations, supporting fair trade and strengthening supply chains,
- Investing in rural roads, bridges, broadband and vocational training,
- Tightening border security while making legal entry easier; and
- Protecting abortion-choice rights, contraception access and reproductive-health education.
Constantino has proposed permanently securing the Northern border, according to his campaign agenda. He's also supported:
- Putting more money in residents' pockets,
- Bringing down prices, including utility costs; and
- Expanding faster internet and cell service across the district.
Schmidt's campaign identifies jobs, lower bills and infrastructure as priorities, according to his campaign website.
The Money Behind the Race
Constantino raised about $12.1 million and had about $3 million in cash on hand through June 30, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings; he carried about $12 million in debt. Gendebien raised about $5.5 million and had about $2.6 million in cash on hand through June 30, with no debt reported, according to FEC filings.
Outside groups spent about $325,000 in the race as of Oct. 13, with money flowing to both sides. Patriotic Fund, Inc. was the largest outside spender, putting about $162,000 behind Anthony Constantino, a Republican candidate. America First Warrior PAC spent about $83,000 opposing Constantino, while Save American Freedom spent $40,000 opposing Gendebien.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets
The Cook Political Report rated the race "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 9. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 11. Inside Elections rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 2.Kalshi traders gave Republicans a 72.55 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13 while Democrats stood at 27.45 percent.
Stefanik carried the district with about 52 percent in 2022 and about 56 percent in 2024, both Republican wins. Statewide, Democrats won 18 of New York's 26 U.S. House seats in 2022 and 19 in 2024, while Republicans held the remainder in both cycles. Democrat Kamala Harris carried New York in the 2024 presidential election with about 55 percent of the vote.
New York voters must register by Saturday, Oct. 24; the state must receive mail and online registration applications by that date, and in-person registration at the local board of elections closes the same day. Mail-ballot applications submitted by mail or online must be received by Saturday, Oct. 24; in-person applications are accepted through Monday, Nov. 2. Early voting runs Saturday, Oct. 24 through Sunday, Nov. 1, with hours set by local county boards. Polls on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
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