Who's In the Race
Rep. Michael R. Turner (R-OH) faces Democratic challenger Kristina Knickerbocker and Libertarian candidate Thomas McMasters in Ohio's 10th Congressional District.
Turner has represented the Dayton-area district since 2003, previously served eight years as Dayton's mayor, and practiced law in the city for more than 17 years.
Knickerbocker is a U.S. Air Force veteran who served nearly a decade, including as a major and nurse with the 88th Air Base Wing at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, and has worked as a neuro-oncology nurse practitioner at The Ohio State University Medical Center.
McMasters is a former Huber Heights mayor, a test manager, and a military veteran who served in the Army Reserve and Air Force before retiring in 2009.
What They Stand For
According to his official House website, Turner has supported securing the border and opposes amnesty for people who entered the country illegally, stating, "Securing our borders and stopping illegal immigration is a matter of national security." He has backed job creation in manufacturing, defense-industry and high-tech sectors in the Dayton area, and has supported protecting and expanding Wright-Patterson Air Force Base as vital to both regional employment and national security. He has also led efforts to combat sexual assault in the military, supporting legislation to prevent assault, protect victims and strengthen prosecution.
According to her campaign website, Knickerbocker says the healthcare system puts profit ahead of patient care and prevention, and she supports affordable access to quality care. Her campaign site also says families need immediate action to lower costs and make it more realistic to raise children and care for family members. According to the Dayton Daily News, she wants to renew Affordable Care Act subsidies and end tariffs and the war in Iran. Her campaign site adds that veterans, service members and military families deserve strong support and a high quality of life.
McMasters, also according to the Dayton Daily News, has favored Congress passing annual budgets through regular order rather than relying on temporary spending measures to keep the government funded.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets
The Cook Political Report rated the race "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 9. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 11. Inside Elections rated it "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 2.
On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Turner, an 85.29 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 12; Democrats, whose nominee is Knickerbocker, stood at 14.71 percent.
Turner carried the district with about 62 percent in 2022 and about 58 percent in 2024. Republicans won 10 of Ohio's 15 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats winning the remaining five each cycle. Donald Trump carried Ohio in the 2024 presidential election with about 55 percent of the vote.
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