Who's In the Race

It's looking like Republicans will take Ohio's 15th congressional district in the midterm elections. Incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Carey won his party's primary on May 5 for Ohio's 15th U.S. House District, and Don Ralph Leonard is listed as a Democratic candidate in the race, with the general election set for Nov. 3. [](#ngr-f2a2d1c0-b270-4208-bd8b-2cc848ae7a42)

What They Stand For

Carey's campaign website says he supports tax cuts and work requirements for Medicaid, including provisions he says prevent undocumented immigrants and able-bodied non-workers from receiving benefits intended for vulnerable citizens. He also backs increased border security, citing his support for border-security funding in the Working Families Tax Cuts law, and lists energy independence as a campaign priority. On public safety, Carey supports strengthening local law enforcement through expanded Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) Hiring Program grants and backs legislation creating a competitive grant program for emergency medical services, according to his campaign website. He also supports legislation that would let disabled veterans injured in non-service-related incidents keep contributing to tax-free health savings accounts while receiving VA benefits.

Leonard, running as a Democrat, says he would fight for an economy he describes as fair, prosperous, and sustainable. On his campaign site he says he would represent everyone in the district and hold town halls even when discussions are difficult.

The Money Behind the Race

Ohio outside spending in the 15th District totals $4,458 as of Oct. 5, all of it in support of Democratic candidate Leonard, with no reported spending in opposition to either candidate. The Unity & Justice Fund is listed as the top outside-spending committee in the race, with $4,458 in spending across five records.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three rating services all call this race "Likely Republican": the Cook Political Report as of Sept. 25, Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Sept. 29, and Inside Elections as of Oct. 2.

On the prediction market Kalshi, as of Oct. 5, the Republican candidate held a 74.51% probability of winning, with the Democrat at 25.49%.

Carey won the district in both recent cycles, taking 56.96% in 2022 and 56.46% in 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald J. Trump carried Ohio with 55.14% of the vote.

---

AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article