Who's In the Race

A campaign ad by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) opposing transgender participation in girls' sports drew criticism from local Democratic groups, according to Hoodline. Republican challenger Derek Merrin aired a competing ad criticizing her voting record. ​

Kaptur and Merrin face off Tuesday, Nov. 3, in Ohio's 9th Congressional District. Kaptur has represented the district since 1983 and previously served as a domestic policy adviser to President Jimmy Carter. She won the Democratic primary unopposed.

Merrin served eight years in the Ohio House, chaired the Ways and Means and Health committees and previously served as Waterville mayor. Libertarian nominee Matthew Althaus withdrew Aug. 24, too late for his party to replace him, according to Ballot Access News.

What They Stand For

On her campaign website, Kaptur supports tariffs protecting Ohio manufacturing, ending tax breaks for companies moving jobs overseas and expanding workforce training. She opposes Social Security and Medicare cuts or privatization, supports lowering health care and grocery costs, and favors stronger border security alongside legal immigration protections. She opposes a national abortion ban.

Kaptur's transgender sports ad has drawn criticism from Democratic and LGBTQ+ organizations, while Merrin argues her previous congressional votes contradict its message. Merrin supports the America First agenda, border security, lower taxes and a simplified tax code. WTOL reported that he also supports congressional term limits and has portrayed himself as willing to challenge leadership in both parties.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Kaptur reported $4.3 million in receipts and $3.49 million in cash on hand through June 30. Merrin reported $1.51 million in receipts and $531,214 in cash on hand, with approximately $88,000 in debt.

Outside groups reportedly spent $199,591 as of Oct. 8, including expenditures supporting and opposing Merrin. American Resolve PAC reportedly spent $100,000, divided between $40,000 in support and $60,000 in opposition.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race a Toss-up as of Sept. 25 and Sept. 29, respectively. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats a 68.63% chance of winning as of Oct. 8, compared with 31.37% for Republicans.

Kaptur won approximately 57% in 2022 and 48% in 2024. Republicans held 10 of Ohio's 15 House seats after both elections. Trump carried Ohio with approximately 55% in 2024.

Voter registration closed Oct. 5. Early voting continues through Nov. 1. Absentee-ballot applications must be received by Oct. 27 at 8:30 p.m. Election Day polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.

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