What Happened?
If you live in Texas, Ohio or Michigan, a lot of the Senate ads on your TV aren’t coming from the candidates. Three Republican-aligned super PACs have now reported more than half a billion dollars in spending on this year’s Senate races, according to a Legis1 tally of outside spending through Sunday, Oct. 11:
- SLF PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund’s super PAC: $209.87 million
- No Going Back PAC Inc., a Trump-linked group backed by MAGA Inc., according to a Legis1 profile of the group: $159.55 million
- Texas PAC, a Senate Leadership Fund affiliate, according to Axios: $140.23 million
Why Does It Matter To Me?
Texas is ground zero. The three groups have reported $145.84 million in the Texas Senate race, almost all of it from Texas PAC, which has spent $69.59 million backing Republican Ken Paxton and $70.64 million attacking Democrat James Talarico. 270toWin rates the race a Toss-up.
Ohio and Michigan voters are seeing the same playbook. SLF PAC has reported $54.16 million against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio and $31.70 million against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. No Going Back PAC added $20.15 million against Brown and $19.37 million against El-Sayed.
Both Sides, Now
Texas PAC says its goal is making sure voters have the facts before they vote. Super PACs can raise unlimited sums from individuals, corporations and other groups, but they must report their donors to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Critics say that disclosure has a big loophole. Nonprofits and shell companies that don’t name their donors poured more than $1.9 billion into 2024 federal races, including $1.3 billion given to super PACs, the Brennan Center for Justice found. Groups backing Democrats accounted for about $1.2 billion of that, compared with about $664 million for groups backing Republicans.
What Happens Next?
Expect the ad wave to grow. Texas PAC reported $6.63 million in the week of Oct. 5 to Oct. 11, up 216% from $2.10 million the week before, and SLF PAC reported $33.24 million in attack spending that same week.
You’ll be able to track it almost in real time. In the final 20 days before the Tuesday, Nov. 3, election, super PACs must report any new independent spending of $1,000 or more within 24 hours, under FEC filing rules. Early voting in Texas starts Monday, Oct. 19.
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