What Happened?

If you watch TV in Hampton Roads, northeastern North Carolina or around Phoenix, two big new Republican ad buys are headed your way. Republican-aligned outside groups booked $2.35 million in broadcast airtime on Monday, Oct. 19, about 14 times the $166,000 booked by Democratic-aligned groups, according to Legis1’s daily ad tracker. A day earlier, Democratic-aligned groups had led by $479,000. ​

Two buys made up almost all of the Republican total, and neither group had booked in those markets the day before. Congressional Leadership Fund booked $1.19 million in the Norfolk, Va., TV market, which covers both Virginia’s 2nd and North Carolina’s 1st congressional districts, though the filing doesn’t name a race. No Going Back PAC booked $1.11 million in the Phoenix market. Even so, both sides came in below their daily averages over the past two weeks, $4.07 million for Republican-aligned groups and $1.57 million for Democratic-aligned groups.

Why Does It Matter To Me?

These are reservations TV stations must log in their public political files, for ads that haven’t aired yet. Republican-aligned groups booked $81,000 naming North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, where Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) faces Republican Laurie Buckhout. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate it a Toss-up, and outside groups had spent more than $20 million there by mid-October, Roll Call reported.

In Ohio, the Democratic-aligned group WinSenate booked $166,000 and Senate Leadership Fund booked $1,000 naming the Senate race between Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate it a Toss-up, Newsweek reported. Democratic-aligned groups still hold more reserved airtime in both states: $15.73 million to $14.01 million in North Carolina, and $13.56 million to $10.31 million in Ohio over the next two weeks.

Both Sides, Now

Much of that airtime carries sharp attacks. In North Carolina, House Majority PAC has aired an ad on Buckhout’s 2017 drunk-driving arrest, and Congressional Leadership Fund has attacked Davis on transgender rights, according to Roll Call.

In Ohio, a PolitiFact fact-check on Oct. 14 rated “Pants on Fire” a Senate Leadership Fund ad linking Brown to a woman’s gender-transition surgery, finding the surgery happened in Texas when she was 19. Brown’s campaign called the ad a “complete lie,” while the group defended it by pointing to Brown’s 2023 comments that such decisions belong to families and doctors.

What Happens Next?

The gap widened the next day. On Tuesday, Oct. 20, Republican-aligned groups booked another $2.99 million, while Democratic-aligned groups canceled more than they added, for a net cut of $471,000, according to Legis1’s Oct. 20 update.

Democratic-aligned groups nearly caught up on Wednesday, Oct. 21, booking $6.86 million to $7.62 million for Republican-aligned groups, according to Legis1’s Oct. 21 update. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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