Who's In the Race

Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge and incumbent Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-CA) are running against each other in California's 23rd Congressional District. Hodge is a licensed clinical social worker and lifelong High Desert resident, while Obernolte has served in the U.S. House since January 3, 2023, and holds seats on the House committees on Energy and Commerce, Science, Space, and Technology, and the Budget. Obernolte won the district in 2024 with 60 percent of the vote and in 2022 with 61 percent.

What They Stand For

Hodge says she is campaigning to lower the cost of living. She supports access to quality health care, arguing that rural communities in the district face long waits, high prices, and long drives for basic care. She also says she wants to fund local schools.

Obernolte says immigration laws must be followed and that the southern border should be secured to stop illegal immigration, drugs, and human trafficking. He says Congress should establish a federal framework for governing artificial intelligence while preserving American innovation. He opposes the Inflation Reduction Act.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in California's 23rd District race totaled $747,841 as of Oct. 5, with coverage through Sept. 30. Of that total, $729,151 supported candidates and $18,690 opposed candidates. By party, $468,617 targeted the Democratic candidate and $278,372 targeted the Republican candidate.

The top three outside-spending committees were Working Class Heroes Fund at $487,307, American Mission at $259,682, and the San Bernardino County Democratic Central Committee at $851. The committee totals below reflect overall spending amounts and do not indicate support or opposition.

| Committee | Total | Count |
| -------------------------------------------------- | --------: | ----: |
| WORKING CLASS HEROES FUND | 487,306.9 | 8 |
| AMERICAN MISSION | 259,682.3 | 1 |
| SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE | 851.42 | 4 |

| Support/opposition | Total | Count |
| ------------------ | --------: | ----: |
| support | 729,151.1 | 12 |
| oppose | 18,689.58 | 1 |

| Party | Total | Count |
| ----- | --------: | ----: |
| IND | 468,617.3 | 7 |
| REP | 278,371.9 | 2 |

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated the race "Solid Republican" as of late September and early October. On Kalshi, as of Oct. 5, Obernolte carried a 93 percent win probability, and Hodge carried about seven percent.

Obernolte won the district with 61 percent in 2022 and 60 percent in 2024. Statewide, Democrats won 40 of California's federal congressional races in 2022 and 44 in 2024, while Republicans won 12 and 9, respectively. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried California with about 58 percent of the vote.

Voting logistics: The voter-registration deadline, early-voting dates and hours, and Election Day polling hours for the Nov. 3, 2026 general election had not been confirmed from official sources as of Oct. 5, 2026. Voters should check the California Secretary of State, Elections Division, and the relevant county elections offices for confirmed deadlines and hours, as early-voting and vote-center schedules are set at the county level and may vary.

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