Who's In the Race

Republican Mark Tedford and Democrat John Croisant are the nominees for Oklahoma's 1st U.S. House District in 2026. The seat is open: Republican Kevin Hern, who previously held the seat, is not running again. The general election is Nov. 3.

What They Stand For

Croisant, the Democratic nominee, supports redirecting Immigration and Customs Enforcement resources toward immigration courts to reduce the case backlog and improve efficiency, according to his official campaign website.

Hern stands for an "American First" and free-market business platform. He emphasizes pro-growth economic policies, deregulation, and lowering taxes. He's served on the House Committee on Ways and Means and chaired the Republican Study Committee.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have directed $623,239 in spending tied to Republican candidates in this race. Of that total, $591,739 went toward supporting candidates and $31,500 went toward opposing them.

Club for Growth Action led all outside spenders with $478,722, all of it in support. Heartland Victory PAC spent $95,000 in support. Sooner Integrity Fund spent $31,500 entirely in opposition. GOPAC Election Fund added $14,000 in support, and Club for Growth PAC rounded out the top five with $4,017 in support.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Sept. 25. Sabato's Crystal Ball carried the same rating as of Sept. 29, and Inside Elections matched it as of Oct. 2. The consensus rating, also as of Oct. 2, is "Solid Republican."

On Kalshi, the prediction market gave the Republican nominee a 94 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 5, with the Democratic nominee at about six percent.

The district has backed Republicans by wide margins in recent cycles: Kevin Hern won the 2022 race with 61 percent of the vote and the 2024 race with about 60 percent. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald Trump carried Oklahoma with about 66 percent of the vote.

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