Who's In the Race

It's looking like Republicans will take California's 5th congressional district on Nov. 3. Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Michael Masuda are the two candidates advancing to the general election, and McClintock is the Republican incumbent. Masuda cleared the top-two primary with 24.3% of the vote on June 2, while McClintock led the field with 61.3%.

What They Stand For

McClintock's campaign platform says immigration laws should be enforced and rejects creating a new general pathway to citizenship for people who entered or remain in the country unlawfully. On the federal budget, he supports reducing spending, controlling mandatory outlays, and balancing the budget to protect the nation's credit. McClintock also supports repealing the Affordable Care Act and withholding funding from provisions he says violate the Constitution or raise costs while reducing insurance availability.

Masuda supports building more housing, reducing construction costs, and helping families afford to remain in their communities, according to his campaign website. On immigration, he supports lawful pathways for people who come to work and contribute, while enforcing the law. Masuda opposes the Trump administration's immigration-enforcement approach, describing it as brutal and chaotic, and criticizes how Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) uses taxpayer funds. Masuda also opposes U.S. military actions he says do not make the country safer, arguing those resources should go toward housing, healthcare, wildfire protection, infrastructure, and schools.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three race-rating services rate California's 5th Congressional District contest Solid Republican: the Cook Political Report as of Sept. 25, Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Sept. 29, and Inside Elections as of Sept. 17.

On Kalshi, the prediction market gave Republicans a 91.8% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 2, 2026, against 8.2% for Democrats.

McClintock won the district in both recent cycles, taking 61.3% of the vote in 2022 and 61.8% in 2024.

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