Who's In the Race

Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker will face off in the general election for California's 3rd U.S. House District. Both advanced from the June 2 top-two primary, with Bera taking 34.3 percent of the vote and Tucker 29.9 percent. The seat is open: the previous holder, Republican Kevin Kiley, is not running. The general election is Nov. 3.

What They Stand For

Bera's campaign centers on health care and retirement security. His campaign says he would lower health care costs, protect Medicare and Medicaid, and expand coverage. He also supports protecting Medicare and Social Security as guaranteed retirement benefits.

On energy, Bera backs policies to move the country away from a carbon-based economy toward clean, energy-independent sources. On immigration, he supports policy he says would keep the country safe while strengthening the economy. Bera has described California's 3rd District as one of the Democrats' "most competitive seats," according to his campaign site.

Tucker's platform focuses on immigration enforcement, taxes, and gun rights. He supports ending federal funding for sanctuary jurisdictions and strengthening federal immigration enforcement. Tucker wants to roll back taxes and regulations he says constrain local economic growth. He opposes efforts to restrict Second Amendment rights and supports national concealed-carry reciprocity.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in this race totals $971, all of it supporting candidates.

Only two committees appear in the outside-spending data for the race. The leaderboard below shows totals only and does not indicate direction.

Activate America reported $771 in spending, according to the data. Reform Leaders PAC has spent $200.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major handicapper rates this race solidly in the Democratic column. Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball matched that rating as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections also rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2.

Prediction markets agree. On Kalshi, as of Oct. 5, the Democratic candidate carried a 96.3 percent win probability against 3.7 percent for the Republican.

The district's own recent history tells a different story. Republican Kevin Kiley won the seat in 2022 with 53.6 percent of the vote and again in 2024 with 55.5 percent. Statewide, Democrats won 44 races, and Republicans won nine, according to the winner counts by party in the records. In the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris carried California with 58.5 percent of the vote.

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