Who's In the Race

Democrat Adam Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln are candidates in the race for California's 13th U.S. House District. Both advanced from a top-two primary held June 2, with Gray drawing 42 percent of the primary vote and Lincoln 27.7 percent. Rep. Adam Gray, a Democrat, is the incumbent in California's 13th U.S. House District and is running for reelection. The general election will take place on Nov. 3.

What They Stand For

Gray's agenda centers on lowering food, housing, and utility costs, increasing water supplies for Central Valley families and farms, and cutting regulatory delays for infrastructure projects, according to his campaign website. He opposes health care cuts that affect Valley families and has secured a commitment to pursue economic assistance for specialty-crop growers in future legislation, his issues page states.

Lincoln's campaign platform opposes diversity, equity, and inclusion mandates, policies allowing men into women's bathrooms, and gender-transition surgeries for children.

The Money Behind the Race

Spending records grouped by candidate party total $51,245 for Republican candidates, across 11 records, and $14,495 for Democratic candidates, across 34 records.

| Party | Total | Count |
| ----- | --------: | ----: |
| REP | 51,245.08 | 11 |
| DEM | 14,494.77 | 34 |

Of the total outside spending in the race, $55,754 went toward supporting candidates and $9,986 went toward opposing them.

| Support/opposition | Total | Count |
| ------------------ | --------: | ----: |
| support | 55,753.82 | 36 |
| oppose | 9,986.03 | 9 |

CLF spent $44,696 across six records. The Conservative Caucus dba Americans for Constitutional Liberty reported $17,561 in total spending across 15 records. Indigo PAC reported $2,321 in spending across 21 records, and Activate America reported $346 across two. The committee totals below reflect overall spending and do not indicate direction.

| Committee | Total | Count |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------- | --------: | ----: |
| CLF | 44,696.11 | 6 |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY | 17,561.31 | 15 |
| INDIGO PAC | 2,321.09 | 21 |
| FIELD TEAM 6, INC. | 815.51 | 1 |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA | 345.83 | 2 |

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rates the race "Lean Democratic" as of Sept. 25, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rates it "Lean Democratic" as of Sept. 29. A consensus rating from 270towin puts the race at "Likely Democratic" as of Oct. 2.

Prediction market Kalshi gives Democrats a 95.4 percent chance of winning the seat and Republicans a 4.6 percent chance, as of Oct. 5.

The district has flipped parties in back-to-back cycles: a Republican won with 50.2 percent in 2022, and Gray won it back for Democrats with 50.0 percent in 2024. The records show 44 Democratic winners and nine Republican winners. Democrat Kamala Harris carried California in the 2024 presidential race with 58.5 percent of the vote. Gray has described the district as a competitive Central Valley seat.

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