Who's In The Race

Voters in central and southern Oklahoma have until Friday, Oct. 9, to register for a race that will decide whether the lawmaker in charge of writing Congress' spending bills keeps his seat. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, faces Democrat Mitchell Jacob, a Cleveland County public defender and Army veteran.

Cole, a Chickasaw Nation citizen from Moore, has represented Oklahoma's 4th U.S. House District in south-central Oklahoma since 2003. He won the June 16 Republican primary with about 71% of the vote over Marcie Everhart. Jacob won the Democratic primary with about 54% over Air Force veteran Jeff Pixley, according to the OU Daily.

What They Stand For

Cole became the first Native American to lead the Appropriations Committee in 2024. His campaign website calls for "a smaller, less intrusive government, lowering taxes and stopping out-of-control spending," along with "cutting burdensome red tape." He also backs higher defense spending to counter China and Russia and more domestic energy production.

Jacob, a University of Oklahoma law graduate, says "people deserve high-quality, affordable healthcare" and wants to restore the expired Affordable Care Act premium tax credits. At his July campaign launch in Lawton, he called U.S. military involvement abroad "unconstitutional" and blamed it for rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, KSWO reported. He also wants to treat public education "as an investment, not like an expense."

The Money Behind The Race

Cole reported raising about $3.8 million from Jan. 1, 2025, through June 30, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Roughly $1.6 million came from other political committees, and he had about $2.6 million in the bank at the end of June.

Jacob reported raising about $65,000 from July 2025 through June 30, including a $22,500 loan to his own campaign. He had about $4,000 left. Americans 4 Security PAC, a super PAC, has reported spending $250,000 in the race, all of it backing the Republican side.

Race Outlook: Ratings And Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican as of Sept. 25, and Inside Elections gives it the same rating as of Oct. 2. Sabato's Crystal Ball calls it Safe Republican as of Sept. 29. On Kalshi, traders favored Cole at about 97.1% as of 3:50 p.m. ET Monday, Oct. 5.

Cole won about 65% of the vote in 2024 and about 67% in 2022. President Donald Trump carried Oklahoma with about 66% in 2024.

Absentee ballot requests are due by 5 p.m. Monday, Oct. 19. Early voting runs Wednesday, Oct. 28, through Saturday, Oct. 31, and polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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