Who's In the Race

Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District is held by Rep. Ryan E. Mackenzie, a Republican who is running in the November 3 general election, and the consensus race rating as of Oct. 2 is Lean Democratic. ​

The general election pits Bob Brooks, the Democratic nominee, against incumbent Republican Mackenzie.

Brooks won the Democratic primary on May 19, with 41 percent of the vote; Ryan Crosswell was the runner-up with 21 percent. Brooks spent 20 years as a firefighter with the City of Bethlehem fire department, according to his campaign biography.

Before his election to Congress, Mackenzie served as policy director at the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, according to his official House biography. The Republican primary record lists only one candidate and shows no certified results, so no primary vote share or runner-up for Mackenzie can be reported from the supplied race record.

The 2024 presidential result for Pennsylvania's 7th District as currently drawn could not be verified from the supplied research.

What They Stand For

Brooks has supported restoring Medicaid cuts and Medicare for All, according to his campaign issues page, and has also proposed restoring renewable energy provisions, investing in new nuclear and natural-gas power plants, and addressing utility price-gouging, per the same source.

Mackenzie has listed delivering tax relief and safeguarding Social Security and Medicare among his priorities, according to his campaign issues page.

The Money Behind the Race

Pennsylvania outside spending in this race has reached $4,422,934 as of Oct. 7, according to the AllCiv race record. Outside groups have spent $4,410,541 tied to Democratic candidates and $12,393 tied to Republican candidates.

Independent expenditures in Pennsylvania's 7th District include $3,692,045 spent supporting candidates and $730,889 spent opposing candidates, figures that are reported separately because the same disbursement can be indexed on both sides.

Outside spending totals in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District race, which the evidence describes as approximate and indicative only, list Stronger Together PA at $1,781,524, Lead Left PAC at $1,709,000, Jobs and Democracy PAC at $249,750, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC at $140,300 and Integrity PAC at $103,002.8, though other committees with spending in the race may not appear and the totals do not show whether the money supported or opposed any candidate.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Sept. 25, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of Sept. 29, and Inside Elections rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 2. The consensus rating across those outlets, as of Oct. 2, is Lean Democratic.

On the prediction market Kalshi, Brooks held an 85.29 percent win probability, and Mackenzie held a 14.71 percent win probability as of Oct. 7.

In 2022, Democrat Susan Wild won the district with 51 percent of the vote; in 2024, Mackenzie flipped the seat, winning with 51 percent, according to the AllCiv district records for 2022 and 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald J. Trump carried Pennsylvania with 50 percent of the vote.

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