Who's In the Race

Democrat Janelle Stelson, a staunch advocate for affordability and anti-corruption, and incumbent Republican Scott Perry, a champion for border enforcement and energy development, face off in November for Pennsylvania's 10th U.S. House District. Both advanced from certified May 19 primaries: Stelson winning a five-candidate Democratic field with 42,397 votes, Perry running unopposed on the Republican side. [](#ngr-e2df7731-8bdc-4029-a89f-65cf7bc697af)

What They Stand For

Stelson's campaign website says she will "work with Republicans & Democrats to lower the costs of utilities, healthcare, buying a home, and invest in our small businesses and family farms," according to her priorities page as cited in the candidate preview.

On housing, her campaign website describes a dedicated plan that includes making home construction "faster, easier, and cheaper," expanding small-dollar home loans, and repealing tariffs she argues raise prices on lumber and drywall. Her campaign website describes her anti-corruption agenda as targeting corruption in both parties, according to her priorities page.

On veterans, her campaign website states: "In Congress, I will vote to expand access to health benefits, continuing education and job-training to equip veterans for continued success back home in our communities."

Perry's platform centers on cutting federal spending, border enforcement, and energy development. His official House website, as cited in campaign research, includes language stating that the federal government "has run up an unsustainable debt" and calling for Washington to "stop spending money it doesn't have."

On immigration, his official congressional website and public statements support resuming border-wall construction, ending catch-and-release, and expanding detention and removal operations, and he has called a bipartisan Senate border bill a "dumpster fire."

His energy issues page states: "We must pursue an all-of-the-above energy strategy that includes development of new, clean energy technologies while ensuring that America takes full advantage of our vast domestic energy resources." On the economy, his issues page says jobs and growth "remain the top concern of most constituents, regardless of political ideology" and calls for Washington to create "opportunities for job growth."

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups had spent about $308,000 in independent expenditures in this race through Sept. 21, split between roughly $235,000 in support spending and $73,000 in opposition spending. An additional $2.45 million in spending notices filed through Sept. 24 is pending inclusion in periodic reports, meaning the total could rise substantially.

By targeted candidate, outside groups spent about $172,000 targeting the Republican candidate and about $136,000 targeting the Democratic candidate through Sept. 21.

The five committees that reported the most outside spending in the race through that date were:

  • WelcomePAC: $66,177
  • House Freedom Action: $44,976
  • LGBTQ Connection PAC: $33,430
  • API PA Votes: $31,314
  • Club for Growth PAC: $31,232 (direction unspecified in filings)

The committee leaderboard is incomplete; a portion of matching filings fell outside the returned totals, so additional committees may be significant spenders not reflected above. The filings do not indicate whether each committee's spending supported or opposed a particular candidate.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three major race-rating services all call this contest a Toss-up: Cook Political Report as of Sept. 11, Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Sept. 22, and Inside Elections as of Sept. 17.

On the prediction market Kalshi, as of Sept. 24, the Democratic candidate held an 80 percent implied probability of winning, with the Republican at 20 percent, based on a market volume of 19,055 contracts.

Pennsylvania's recent federal election results show a state that has moved in Republicans' direction. In this district, Perry won with about 54 percent in 2022 and about 51 percent in 2024. Statewide, Republicans won nine of 17 House seats in 2022 and 11 of 17 in 2024, a gain of two seats.

Pennsylvania's two most recent U.S. Senate races split between parties: Democrat John Fetterman won in 2022 with about 51 percent, and Republican Dave McCormick won in 2024 with about 49 percent. Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential race with about 50 percent of the vote.

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