The Race
Rep. Summer Lee's Democratic stronghold is set to stand for the 2026 midterm election predictions. The race in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District heads to the polls on Nov. 3, and the experts seem confident in the incumbent's performance.
Lee faces Republican James Hayes, who won his party's primary back on May 19. The general election field first swelled to six candidates total, though the battle lines are clear: the Democrat versus the Republican in a district rated Solid Democratic by the consensus of Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Expert Ratings
The expert consensus has already declared this district firmly in the Democratic column with a Solid Democratic rating.
Prediction Markets
As of June 29, Kalshi's odds give Democrats a 91.71% probability of winning, while Republicans sit at 8.29%.
Polls vs. Markets
A Solid Democratic rating doesn't come with a specific probability attached, but 91.71% is roughly what you'd expect from that kind of consensus, an overwhelming Democratic advantage. Hayes has his work cut out for him in a district where the fundamentals, the experts, and the markets all point the same direction: Democratic victory is the baseline expectation, and anything else would be a genuine upset.
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