Who's In the Race

Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity face each other in Pennsylvania's governor's race on Nov. 3. Democrat Josh Shapiro is the incumbent governor and is running for reelection. ​

Both nominees won their primaries on May 19. Shapiro ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, drawing 1,115,614 votes. Garrity won the Republican primary with 638,316 votes, running against a placeholder opponent.

Endorsements

Shapiro has drawn support from a former president. Barack Obama endorsed Democrat Josh Shapiro in the general election. Obama's backing puts one of the Democratic Party's most prominent national figures behind the incumbent heading into November.

Garrity has assembled a broad coalition of Republican endorsers at the national and state level. Donald Trump endorsed Garrity. Three statewide officials also backed Garrity: Tom Corbett, Timothy DeFoor, and Dave Sunday. That combination of a sitting president, a former governor, and two current statewide officeholders gives Garrity a deep bench of Pennsylvania Republican credibility.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Three major race-rating outlets all place Pennsylvania's governor's race firmly in Shapiro's column. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 28; Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 28; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 23.

Polling aggregated by Legis1 as of Oct. 21 showed Shapiro leading Garrity 57 percent to 34 percent, a margin of 23 points. For context, a candidate trailing by 23 points in late October would need a shift in voter sentiment with almost no time remaining for that shift to take hold.

Previous Elections

Pennsylvania's recent electoral history shows a state that can split its ticket sharply. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump carried Pennsylvania over Kamala Harris, 50 percent to 48 percent, a margin of about 120,000 votes out of more than 7 million cast. Trump's narrow win at the top of the ticket stands in contrast to how the state voted for governor just two years earlier.

In the 2022 governor's race, Shapiro defeated Republican Doug Mastriano, winning 3,031,137 votes to Mastriano's 2,238,477.

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