The Race
West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District is shaping up as one of the year's most lopsided races, with expert raters and high-stakes bettors locked in agreement: the Republican incumbent is running away with this one.
Riley Moore, the sitting representative, is the only Republican up for the primary. Meanwhile, Democrat Ace Parsi emerged from a three-candidate slugfest to claim the Democratic nomination. Come November 3, 2026, it'll be Moore versus Parsi, and the data suggests Moore has already won.
Moore ran unopposed on the Republican side, racking up 48,782 votes in a one-horse show. The Democratic primary was bloodier: Parsi won with 17,811 votes, edging out Stephanie Spears Tomana's 16,961 and Steven Wendelin's 10,019. The Democrats' total haul was 44,791 votes—nearly as many as the Republicans, but split three ways.
Two Independent candidates, Pat Carney and Chris Whitcomb, competed in their own primary but won't appear on the general election ballot.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report and its peers have rendered their verdict: this race is Solid Republican territory. That's the kind of rating that makes Democrats reach for the aspirin bottle. It's not "likely" or "lean"—it's *solid*, the kind of seat where the incumbent could show up to exactly zero campaign events and still win.
Prediction Markets
As of late June, the Republican candidate sits at a 95.51% probability of winning, with the Democratic candidate clinging to just 4.49%.
Experts vs. Markets
They're simply confirming what the experts already knew: West Virginia's 2nd is Riley Moore's to lose, and he's not losing it.
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