Who's In the Race

Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA) faces Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election in California's 24th U.S. House District, a top-two race in which the two highest vote-getters in the June primary advanced regardless of party. ​

Carbajal has represented California's 24th District since 2017, after serving 12 years on the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors and eight years in the Marine Corps Reserve, including active duty during the 1992 Gulf War.

In the June 2 top-two primary, Carbajal took about 54% of the vote and Smith took about 36%, according to the California Secretary of State's official statement of vote. That left Carbajal 18.5 percentage points ahead of Smith in the primary.

Smith is a retired U.S. Navy commander who served more than 26 years, including combat deployments, and was named U.S. Navy Engineer of the Year in 2023. He holds a bachelor's degree in Engineering Technology and a master's degree in Systems Engineering.

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What They Stand For

Carbajal has proposed doubling Pell Grants and adjusting them for inflation through his Degrees Not Debt Act, according to Mustang News. He's also supported:

  • Transitioning to renewable energy, including offshore wind, and protecting open spaces through his Central Coast Heritage Protection Act,
  • Permanently codifying protections for undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children through the DREAM and Promise Act,
  • Making health care more affordable; and
  • Caring for veterans, which his campaign lists among its priorities.

Smith has proposed cutting federal spending he considers wasteful and lowering housing, energy, and food costs, according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Emphasizing reading, math, and STEM in schools, expanding vocational and trade pathways, and partnering with UCSB and Cal Poly on research,
  • A balanced energy grid with reliable baseload power, coastline protection, and investment in water storage and drought resilience,
  • Securing the border, removing violent offenders, clarifying status for long-term residents, and modernizing agricultural and seasonal visa programs; and
  • Stopping fentanyl at its source, strengthening AI and cyber defenses, and investing in Vandenberg Space Force Base and Naval Base Ventura County.

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The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Carbajal had raised about $1.65 million, and Smith had raised about $203,000, meaning Carbajal has brought in roughly eight times as much as his challenger, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Carbajal had about $3.4 million in cash on hand compared with about $47,000 for Smith, a gap of roughly 72 to one, and his cash on hand exceeds his roughly $1.65 million in receipts. Smith carried about $29,000 in debt as of June 30, roughly 14% of his $203,000 in total receipts.

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Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Carbajal, a 98% chance of winning as of Oct. 20.

Carbajal has carried the district in each of the two preceding cycles, winning about 61% in 2022 and about 63% in 2024. His 2024 vote share in the district was about 2.1 percentage points higher than his 2022 share, rising from 60.6% to 62.7%. Democrats won 43 of the races, and Republicans won 9. In the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris carried California with about 58% of the vote.

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